\u3000\u3000 Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) (002405)
Reviewing the development process of the map industry, the business model of the map has mainly experienced four stages of evolution, and the subscription fee may become the mainstream in the future:
Stage 1: the graphic manufacturer cooperates with the terminal equipment manufacturer to mainly sell vehicle navigation and consumer electronic navigation maps, which are charged according to the sales volume (license).
Stage 2: Internet manufacturers enter the market, create traffic portals with the help of navigation tool app, and charge advertising fees and value-added service fees.
Stage 3: the combination of online scenes and offline scenes is becoming closer and closer. Map merchants use map data to provide lbs services for enterprises and developers.
Stage 4: facing the future, the demand for high-precision maps breaks out, the maps need to be more refined and real-time, and the business model will move towards cloud / annual fee model. The demand for high-precision map at the vehicle end has exploded. On the one hand, the map is packaged and bound with the automatic driving software, and the map dealer is expected to deeply bind the customers of the vehicle factory and improve the stickiness of users; On the other hand, high-precision maps need to be constantly updated, and the real-time requirements need to be improved. Data cloud is the inevitable choice. Therefore, in the future, the map business model is expected to charge SaaS annual fee to end users, opening up profit space.
Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) map capability is highly scarce, and the company’s value has not been found by the market when the profit model is better. We believe that under the change of map business model, the subscription of map will become the norm in the future, and Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) has the ability of high-precision map, forms a strong scarcity in the market, and can first benefit from the evolution of map profit model. At present, the map profit model of Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) is evolving, and the value brought by this evolution has not been found by the market.
Investment suggestion: Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) as a leader in automotive intelligence with the background of the national team, it will give priority to benefiting from the improvement of road traffic, passenger cars and other intelligence. The maintenance profit forecast is as follows: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.0/39.7/5.21 billion yuan, and the earnings per share (EPS) will be 0.05/0.17/0.34 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 16.52 yuan / share on February 17, 2022. The PE will be 338.8/95.0/48.3 times and the PS will be 13.1/9.9/7.5 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips: 1) the risk that the promotion of new products is less than expected. 2) The risk of tight global supply of automotive chips. 3) Macroeconomic downturn risk.
