\u3000\u3000 Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) (603260)
Event: on February 14, the company announced that it plans to invest 17.5 billion yuan to build a "silicon-based new material industry integration project" in ganquanbao economic and Technological Development Zone (Industrial Zone) in Urumqi, Xinjiang through its wholly-owned subsidiary Xinjiang central Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "central Hesheng"), The project will build 200000 t / a high-purity polysilicon unit and 100000 t / a caustic soda unit. The construction period of the project is from May 2022 to may 2025.
Comments:
With the joint promotion of photovoltaic superimposed semiconductors, the demand for polysilicon has increased rapidly. In the context of the "double carbon" goal, China is in an important stage of energy transformation. The development of photovoltaic industry is an important way to promote energy transformation. According to the data of the national energy administration, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 54.88gw in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 13.86%. According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the output of polysilicon and silicon wafer (photovoltaic) in China reached 505000 tons and 227gw respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% and 40.6% respectively. The rapid growth of photovoltaic industry has driven the demand for polysilicon, making the polysilicon industry continue to boom. According to Ifind data, the average ex factory price of polysilicon in China was 131000 yuan / ton in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 119%. Since the beginning of 2022, the average ex factory price of polysilicon in China has reached 195000 yuan / ton. In addition, polycrystalline silicon can be further made into monocrystalline silicon and used to manufacture products such as integrated circuit silicon substrate. In the context of the continuous shortage of supply in the global semiconductor industry chain and the rapid expansion of global wafer factory capacity, the demand for polysilicon in the semiconductor industry will also increase significantly.
Industrial silicon and downstream supporting capacity have been greatly expanded to consolidate the company's leading position in silicon-based industry. At present, the company has industrial silicon and silicone monomer production capacity of 730000 T / A and 930000 T / a respectively. Meanwhile, the company has 800000 T / a industrial silicon production and supporting 600000 T / a coal processing and production projects under construction in Yunnan, 400000 T / a industrial silicon and 400000 T / a siloxane and downstream deep processing projects under construction in Xinjiang. After the planned and under construction capacity is put into operation, the company's leading position in silicon-based industry will be further highlighted. In addition, the completion of the central Hesheng production capacity project will significantly increase the company's polysilicon production capacity, further improve the layout of the company's silicon-based material industry chain, and then improve the company's product diversity and overall profitability.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the sharp rise in the prices of industrial silicon, silicone and other products in 2021 and the sustainability of the corresponding high prices, we raised the company's profit forecast from 2021 to 2023. We expect the company's net profit attributable to parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 86.6 (up 35.5%) / 103.9 (up 16.7%) / 118.7 (up 19.8%) billion yuan respectively. We continue to be optimistic about the demand driven by the high boom development of downstream industries for industrial silicon, as well as the further improvement of profitability brought by the coordinated development of the company's silicon-based material industry chain and accelerated extension, and still maintain the "overweight" rating of the company.
Risk tip: production capacity construction is less than expected, product price fluctuation risk, energy consumption supervision policy risk, downstream demand is less than expected risk.
