Under the tone of “housing, housing and non speculation”, consumers’ expectations of continued rising house prices have changed. With the gradual implementation of relevant policies to support just in need customers, the real estate market is steadily entering the buyer’s market from the seller’s market.
Recently, the shell Research Institute released the “2021 city just need house purchase report” (hereinafter referred to as the “report”), which makes a detailed description and analysis from the aspects of residential consumption behavior characteristics, choice preferences and residential pain points. Whether we can really understand consumers and fully and effectively communicate with consumers determines whether industry enterprises can develop products that meet the needs of consumers and whether industry enterprises can gain a firm foothold in the “high-pressure” market.
significant differences between urban energy levels
The report analyzes the behavior characteristics of rigid demand real estate from the aspects of average total price of “boarding” sets of rigid demand customers, comparison of living burden index and comparison of real estate area.
As for the total price per unit, the total price per unit in the first tier cities in 2021 is about 2.98 million yuan, the same as that in 2020; In 2021, the average total price of the new first tier cities is about 1.495 million yuan, slightly higher than that in 2020; In 2021, the average total price of second tier cities is about 1.234 million yuan, which has no significant change compared with 2020. There are 3 cities with an average price of more than 3 million yuan; More cities are concentrated in the range of 1-3 million yuan, a total of 25; In addition, the total price of seven cities is less than 1 million yuan, and the total price of “boarding” is relatively low in cities represented by Harbin, Guiyang, Changchun, Shenyang and Yantai.
Specific to the housing burden index, the housing burden of first tier cities is significantly higher. The first tier cities represented by Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, relying on a strong industrial foundation, have brought higher quality employment opportunities, superimposed with convenient basic supporting services, making them more attractive to talents. From the perspective of demand side, the house purchase demand of just in need customers is relatively strong, which has become a strong support for house prices. The housing burden of Guiyang and Harbin is relatively low, mainly due to the relatively low house prices and the corresponding housing burden index. For Changsha, while the house price is relatively friendly, the average monthly salary is also relatively high, ranking 15th among the 35 sample cities, and the burden index is low.
In terms of real estate area, in 2021, the average area difference between 35 sample cities is still significant, and the gap between urban energy levels is still obvious. The difference in the area of “boarding” just needed in cities is largely related to factors such as house purchase burden, housing supply structure and consumption habits. According to the report, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing and other cities just need to “get on the bus” with a small average area. On the one hand, it is due to the large living burden in their cities. On the other hand, the housing supply in these cities is dominated by small family houses. Taking Shenzhen as an example, nearly 64% of the houses on sale are concentrated in the area below 90 square meters, The overall housing market structure is biased towards small-area houses. Among the 15 new first tier cities, Tianjin, Nanjing and Chongqing have lower living areas, Foshan, Changsha and Zhengzhou have larger living areas, and the average living area of the 15 new first tier cities is about 83.86 square meters. Among the 16 second tier cities, Harbin, Dalian and Xiamen have smaller living areas, Nanchang and Shijiazhuang have larger living areas, and the average living area of the 16 second tier cities is about 82.56 square meters.
high demand for real estate in Dawan District, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao
The report analyzes the cross city real estate of just in need customers from the aspects of talent attraction, ranking of urban migration index, migration index of key cities in Dawan district and comparison of urban siphon effect.
Among the 35 sample cities, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan and other cities in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay area have become typical “migration” cities, followed by cities in the Yangtze River Delta such as Suzhou, Hangzhou and Wuxi. In addition, Xiamen and Chengdu also rank relatively high in the migration index.
The cities with the highest migration index have the following three characteristics: first, the support of talent attraction policy. In recent years, the top cities have successively issued talent settlement policies, which have strong policy friendliness and continue to attract foreign population, especially highly educated youth groups, to settle down in real estate. Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Dongguan mainly attract people outside the province, including highly educated young people who are the main force of consumption. The cities represented by Zhengzhou, Changsha, Nanning and Taiyuan mainly attract people in the province, and the siphon effect is obvious. Second, the city has a high energy level. Among the top 10 cities, including three first tier cities and four new first tier cities, high-energy cities have comparative advantages in economic volume and industrial layout. People follow the industry, and high salary has strong attraction for talents. Third, mainly southern cities. Among the top 10 cities, except Zhengzhou, the rest are all southern cities and cities with strong talent attraction in recent years. The influx of talents has brought more demand for real estate and formed a strong support for the local real estate market. Industry drives employment, employment drives demand for real estate, real estate drives consumption, and consumption drives employment, thus forming a positive cycle.
The report shows that the migration index of key cities in Dawan district is high. From the perspective of urban agglomeration, Dawan District of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao is undoubtedly a typical “migration” urban agglomeration. The proportion of foreign buyers is relatively high, followed by the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta. They are also the urban agglomeration with the most significant population change in recent years, and mainly inflow. Taking Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan district as an example, it is becoming one of the regions with the fastest population growth in China. The continuous influx of migrant population has brought a continuous demand for house purchase to the real estate market, especially in the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. Among the Bay Area cities, Shenzhen has the highest migration index. With the superposition of advantageous industrial base and the support of talent attraction policies, the continuous influx of high-end talents has brought high real estate demand.
residential pain points focus on community supporting
The report analyzes the real estate preference and concern factors of just in need customers from the aspects of real estate age characteristics, real estate purpose, payment method, housing loan pressure, housing space selection preference, community preference and so on.
In terms of the age of just needed customers, according to the urban agglomeration, the average age of just needed real estate in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is the highest, reaching 33.9 years old, followed by the urban agglomeration on the West Bank of the Taiwan Strait, about 33.4 years old, followed by the Great Bay Area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, about 33.2 years old. By city level, the average age of just in need customers in first tier cities is about 33.5 years old, 1.1 years higher than that in new first tier cities and 0.7 years higher than that in second tier cities.
The report uses the monthly payment to income ratio to measure the monthly payment pressure of families, and defines 30% as the “comfort line”, that is, a newly needed family spends 30% of its monthly disposable income on monthly payment, which can ensure the family’s daily expenses and maintain a relatively decent standard of living; 50% is defined as the “safety line”, that is, it can maintain the normal expenditure of the family and have a certain anti risk ability at the same time. According to the survey data, among the sample households of rigid demand that have purchased their homes, the proportion of monthly supply income ratio of 30% and below is about 67.5%, more than 60% of the sample households of rigid demand are at the “comfort line” level, the proportion of monthly supply income ratio of 50% and below is about 98.1%, and more than 90% of the sample households of rigid demand are at the “safety line” level.
What kind of community do the just in need customers prefer? According to the survey data, 63.8% of the sample households with rigid needs prefer medium-sized communities, 22.5% of the sample households with rigid needs prefer large communities, 11.5% of the sample households with rigid needs prefer small communities, and only 2.2% of the sample households with rigid needs prefer super large communities. 46.1% of the sample households with rigid needs expressed that they prefer to choose a safe and worry free community, that is, they are safe and comfortable in terms of living experience, with monitoring and protective measures in place and high safety; 42.2% of the households in the sample of just in need indicated that they prefer to choose a healthy LOHAS community, that is, the community has rich functions and family members have their own favorite activity space, so LOHAS is carefree; 32.8% of the sample households with just in need said they were more inclined to choose the community with high-quality property services, that is, the community can provide a number of property value-added services.
With regard to the living pain points, 60.4% of the sample households with rigid needs said that the living pain points were mainly concentrated in the community supporting facilities, believing that the surrounding supporting facilities could not meet the living needs, 56.3% of the sample households with rigid needs said that the house type layout was unreasonable, and 53.7% of the sample households with rigid needs said that the internal environment of the community was poor. The report believes that to solve the living pain points, we need to comprehensively improve the supporting facilities around the community, the internal construction of the community and the experience of living space.
