Today (February 17), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a strong shock pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened low in the morning and rose rapidly after the shock. The whole morning showed a shock rebound pattern. In the afternoon, the index gradually began to fall, and the increase gradually converged. Finally, the three indexes closed up slightly.
In this regard, Huaxin Securities said that the A-share volume energy remains at a low level, which is a warning signal. Under the background of non expansion of volume energy, it is difficult to undertake the large unwinding selling pressure above. Therefore, from the perspective of the market, the Shanghai stock index does not accelerate the rise in large quantities, and the probability lies in the possibility of profit taking.
At the same time, Minsheng Securities pointed out that the biggest opportunity in the future is beyond the consensus, which will be different from the market dominated by the core track in the past. It should be emphasized that avoiding institutions is not simply starting from the game. On the contrary, it is precisely because the effective pricing of the past era by the whole market institutional investors in the past 3-5 years has fully discovered the value of the past economic fundamentals. As the current environment changes again, more attention should be paid to the traditional economy and the forgotten corners of the past.
sector:
I. gold concept
East Asia Qianhai securities mentioned that the overseas epidemic and geopolitical conflict intensified, economic uncertainty increased, and gold prices were supported. In the context of the continuous spread of the global epidemic, the uncertainty of the future economic situation still exists. On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukrainian issue continue to appear, which exacerbates the volatility of the global market. Therefore, the global economic uncertainty increases and the gold price is ready to go.
Dongzheng futures also said that the United States has put pressure on Russia, the market risk aversion has increased, the expectation of tightening the Federal Reserve has decreased, the sustainability of geopolitics needs to be observed, which will support the gold price in the short term, and continue to return to the fundamentals after the risk. In addition, geopolitical risks have exacerbated the upward pressure on energy prices, which will further increase the inflationary pressure in the United States. At present, inflation is still an urgent problem to be solved by the U.S. government. The operation of transferring internal problems to external problems in the past may have little effect this time.
In addition, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that gold jewelry consumption has opened a new business cycle. Since the third quarter of 2020, the growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry sales above the limit has begun to exceed the growth rate of social zero consumption, and gold consumption has shown a high momentum. Since 2022, the growth rate of gold and jewelry consumption has been strong. In January, the sales of dealers increased by 30% - 50% year-on-year. During the Spring Festival, the national gold consumption still increased by 13% under the background of last year's Spring Festival superimposing the high base of Valentine's day.
II. Oil and gas
Minsheng Securities said that the supply and demand of the global crude oil market will maintain a tight balance in 2022: (1) supply side: the idle capacity is limited, and the supply increment is less than expected. (2) Demand side: the impact of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the demand is expected to exceed the pre epidemic level. According to OPEC's monthly report in January 2022, the global demand for crude oil is expected to reach 100.79 million barrels / day in 2022, exceeding the demand of 100.10 million barrels in 2019. To sum up, we believe that in 2022, the fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to maintain a tight balance, which will continue to drive the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices.
The agency further analyzed that the crude oil price may continue to fluctuate upward in 2022 and remain at a medium high level throughout the year. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the upstream crude oil mining industry whose profitability benefits from the rise of crude oil and the oil service industry which benefits from the increase of capital expenditure under high oil prices. We suggest paying attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) with new crude oil mining and sales business.
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the tight pattern of crude oil supply and demand fundamentals is still continuing, and the geopolitical situation is changeable, which has brought great uncertainty to the short-term crude oil supply. We believe that the global crude oil supply and demand pattern will remain tight in 2022, continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector and the upstream oil and gas enterprises represented by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) . In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs.
In terms of investment suggestions, it is expected that the global crude oil supply and demand pattern will remain tight in 2022. Therefore, we continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subscripts: first, the upstream sector, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ; Second, oil service sector, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; Third, large private refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ; Fourth, light hydrocarbon cracking sector, satellite chemistry and Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; Fifth, coal to olefins, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; The sixth and third largest chemical white horse, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) .
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