Investment suggestion: we judge that the A-share market can still achieve positive returns in 2022, but the performance of the index may not be as good as that in 2021, and there is a structural market. We suggest paying attention to these directions: (1) the theme of “steady growth”. In 2022, the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase and China’s demand is weak. In order to maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range, the national “steady growth” policy may be introduced one after another, and relevant sectors will also take the lead. We can pay attention to infrastructure, building materials and real estate. (2) New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to pay attention to chip semiconductors and high-end intelligent manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid growth of the industry. (3) Emerging consumption themes. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliances sectors. (4) Epidemic Damage theme. With the further improvement of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa, Mexico and Brazil, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is momentum for valuation and repair in the affected sectors of the epidemic, which can be paid attention to: airports, tourism and cinemas.
Focus on hot topics: (1) the 14th five year plan for promoting agricultural and rural modernization has been released, and the potential of Rural Revitalization may be released. On February 11, the State Council issued the plan for promoting agricultural and rural modernization in the 14th five year plan. We believe that under the strategic guidance of promoting agricultural and rural modernization in the 14th five year plan, the economic and social foundation of Rural Revitalization will be further consolidated, and the rural consumption market potential of more than 500 million rural residents may be released. Superimposed with policy subsidies for furniture, household appliances and cars to the countryside, furniture, household appliances and cars may usher in a business cycle. Related subjects include: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) , etc. (2) Eight ministries and commissions have issued plans for comprehensive utilization of industrial resources, and resource recovery may usher in new opportunities. On February 10, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other eight departments jointly issued the notice on accelerating the implementation plan of promoting the comprehensive utilization of industrial resources. On the whole, resource recovery and reuse is an important means for industrial enterprises to achieve “carbon neutralization and carbon peak”. It is also an important way to reduce their resource consumption, improve capacity utilization and optimize cost structure. Therefore, with the issuance of the programme, the demand for circular and renewable resources is expected to be further released. Related subjects include: Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , etc. (3) The issuance of the 14th five year plan for the development of financial standardization may contribute to new opportunities for the development of digital currency. On February 9, the people’s Bank of China, the State Administration of market supervision, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued the 14th five year plan for the development of financial standardization. The publication of the plan may help accelerate the unification of digital currency standards, and its specific implementation and application scenarios will continue to expand and deepen. Therefore, there may be some opportunities for the upgrading and transformation of IT systems such as banks and asset management and related manufacturers such as data security. The related targets include: Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) .
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from February 7 to February 11, the top gainers are smart IC card, coal mining, digital currency and mobile payment. The main reason is that affected by the “digital economy” policy, relevant sectors are sought after. The top five declines were cro, power supply equipment, Ning combination, photovoltaic inverter and mobile phone battery. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept sectors is high, and the recent tightening of funds has led to significant adjustment.
From February 7 to February 11, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were coal, building decoration, steel, banking and petroleum and petrochemical; The top five declines were power equipment, electronics, medicine and biology, automobile and national defense industry. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are banks, non-ferrous metals, non bank finance, transportation and coal; The top five cumulative net outflows are power equipment, medicine and biology, electronics, computers and mechanical equipment.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; Global epidemic uncertainty.
