What are the recent changes in market capital supply and demand?
1) in January, due to the expected interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the admission pace of foreign capital slowed down significantly, with a net inflow of 16.8 billion yuan per month, but it has maintained a net inflow for 16 consecutive months since November 2020.
2) the net inflow of the fund in December 21 was about 255 billion yuan, which has contributed to the net increment for seven consecutive months, and the annual cumulative contribution was about 1902.5 billion yuan. Since January, the pace of new fund issuance has slowed down, with a monthly new issuance scale of about 94.1 billion.
3) the scale of private placement has expanded slightly, and there was a significant inflow in December. The net inflow in a single month is about 87.3 billion yuan, and the cumulative contribution in the whole year of 21 years is about 1445.2 billion yuan, a new record in the same period.
4) the balance of insurance investment in stocks and funds rebounded for four consecutive months, with a significant increase of about 150.1 billion in a single month in December. However, the net outflow remained in the whole year of 21 years, with a cumulative net outflow of 31.6 billion yuan in the whole year of 21 years.
5) the sentiment of leveraged funds was pessimistic. In January, the net outflow was about 49.7 billion yuan, and the balance of two financial institutions also fell to 1743.7 billion yuan.
Financing supplies:
1) foreign capital (northward capital): in January, the net inflow of northward capital was 16.8 billion yuan.
2) public offering (stock type + mixed type): in December, the net inflow of mixed partial stock fund was 255 billion yuan.
3) insurance (stock + fund): the balance of insurance capital increased by 150.1 billion yuan in December.
4) pension security system (Social Security + pension + annuity): it is expected to contribute 25 billion yuan in the first quarter.
5) bank financial management: it is expected to contribute 50 billion yuan increment in the first quarter.
6) private placement (Private Securities Fund): the net inflow of private placement in December was 87.3 billion yuan.
7) leveraged funds (two financial transactions): the net outflow of two financial transactions in January was 49.7 billion yuan.
8) industrial capital: in January, the net reduction of industrial capital was 32.7 billion yuan.
9) Investor Account Opening: 1.37 million new investors were added in December.
Financing demand items:
In January, the scale of equity financing was about 98 billion yuan. The financing scale of IPO, additional issuance and convertible bonds is about 51.8 billion yuan, 11.1 billion yuan and 10.1 billion yuan respectively.
Risk tips: 1. The macro environment changes beyond expectations; 2. Impact of overseas events; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
