The long and short factors switched rapidly, and the high volatility of commodities increased
On Tuesday (February 15), China's commodity futures market closed mostly down, led by the black series. The main contracts of iron ore futures closed the limit, power coal fell nearly 7%, rebar and hot coil fell nearly 3%; Weak chemicals, urea and PVC fell by nearly 3%; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) most fell, and pigs fell nearly 3%; Crude oil is strong, with crude oil up nearly 2% and fuel oil up more than 1%; Precious metals rose, with both Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver up nearly 2%.
Hot comment: at present, China is faced with mixed long and short factors, and the logic of disk trading changes rapidly. From the perspective of overseas environment, on the one hand, US inflation continues to rise, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening policy continues to rise, and US bond interest rates rise; On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is complicated, tight and loose, which affects international energy prices. From the perspective of China, on the one hand, steady growth will continue, and the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to pick up and drive the improvement of China's demand for industrial products; On the other hand, the national development and Reform Commission strengthened price monitoring and took regulatory measures for varieties with large increases such as iron ore and coal. On the whole, the commodity lacks the main line logic in the short term, and the fluctuation has increased due to the switching back and forth of long and short factors.
1. Black building materials: policy regulation has been upgraded again, and the fluctuation of black system has increased.
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission has successively held seminars on the supply of iron ore and coal, requiring all efforts to do a good job in the supply guarantee and stabilize the market price. The black system is constantly disturbed by policies and the high price fluctuation is increasing. From a fundamental point of view, the downstream resumption progress after the festival was lower than expected, and the demand did not improve. However, during the East Olympic Games, the production of northern steel mills increased, the output rebounded slowly, the accumulated stock of steel was lower than expected, and the worry of insufficient supply continued.
In the medium term, the central bank will open a new round of easing cycle, accelerate the advance force of fiscal policy, accelerate the issuance of special bonds, weaken the impact of superimposed epidemic and rainy and snowy weather, and gradually resume infrastructure and real estate. In addition, with the continuous development of steady growth, real estate will show more soft landing, investment demand is expected to bottom out in the second quarter, and the demand for steel in the peak season is worth looking forward to. Bargain hunting after correction can be considered.
2. Base metal: fast switching of long and short factors and high-level oscillation operation of metal.
The geopolitical situation of Russia and Ukraine eased with the withdrawal of Russian troops, the market risk appetite increased, the dollar index fell, and the metal rebounded again. However, the current situation in Russia and Ukraine is still full of uncertainty, and the Fed's tightening policy is expected to continue to heat up, or there is still pressure on metals. From the perspective of fundamentals, on the one hand, the TC index rose slightly, and the import business of tons of bagged copper concentrate was resumed successively at Erlianhot railway port. The reopening of the port alleviated the tension at China's mine end in the early stage, and it is expected that the supply of China's Copper mine end will be relatively abundant after the festival; On the other hand, China's steady growth policy will accelerate the advance force, and the old and new infrastructure will become an important starting point. It is expected that there will be strong support for the consumption demand of copper. At present, the global copper inventory continues to go, which brings strong support to the copper price and is expected to remain high and volatile.
Precious metals: with the announcement of Russia's withdrawal, the tension between Russia and Ukraine has been eased, and the risk appetite has rebounded significantly. At the same time, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to accelerate the tightening policy has increased, the US bond interest rate has risen above 2%, the US dollar index has strengthened or continued to suppress gold, and the pressure on the short-term adjustment of gold price has increased.
3. Energy and chemical industry: the situation in Russia and Ukraine disturbs the market, and the high international oil price fluctuates sharply.
Russia announced that it would withdraw some of its troops to barracks. The previous impending war was resolved, the fear of energy shortage was alleviated, and the international oil price was significantly adjusted again. At present, the international oil price is greatly affected by the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, and the high fluctuation is huge. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the further development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
In the future, the global energy demand remains strong. In addition, the supply recovery of some OPEC oil producing countries is not as expected, especially the smaller oil producing countries cannot increase production. The crude oil market remains tense, and the oil price will continue to remain high in the short term. In the follow-up, we need to focus on the impact of geopolitics, Iran nuclear negotiations and OPEC + oil production policy on both ends of crude oil supply and demand.
4. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : the expectation of output recovery is enhanced, and the oil support is weakened.
Meidou: after the hype of USDA monthly report and weather factors, the disk price basically reflects the positive factors. At present, the progress of Brazil's soybean harvest has been significantly accelerated. By the end of last week, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 24%, significantly higher than 9% in the same period last year. In the past six years, it has only lagged behind the level of 2019. Superimposed on the easing of Russia Ukraine relations Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , the high level of us beans fell.
Soybean oil: the monitoring shows that at the end of January, the soybean oil inventory of major oil plants in China was 810000 tons, an increase of 25000 tons over the same period last week, an increase of 30000 tons month on month, a year-on-year decrease of 10000 tons, and a decrease of 200000 tons over the same period in recent three years. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the soybean crushing volume will rise rapidly, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to continue the upward trend.
Palm oil production decreased by 67.0% in October compared with that in January and February. According to its data, from February 1 to 15, the export volume of horse palm increased by 18.8% month on month, indicating that the export demand is improving. Meanwhile, the news shows that Malaysia will fully liberalize the border in March, and the labor shortage may be improved, suppressing the price of horse brown.
With the expected warming of accumulated reserves and the correction of high crude oil, the short-term support of oil and grease may be weakened, and there may be some adjustment pressure in the short-term of oil and grease. However, low production, low inventory and high basis difference are still the main dependence of oil bulls, and the space for downward adjustment is expected to be limited.
