CPI grew moderately year-on-year and month on month. In January 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI dropped from 1.5% in the previous period to 0.9%, which was basically the same as the market expectation (1.0%); The month on month growth rate of CPI changed from negative to positive, rising from - 0.3% in the previous period to 0.4% in January. Excluding the impact of food and energy prices, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in January 2022 remained 1.2%, the month on month growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1%, and the core inflation was relatively stable.
The marginal inflation of food, tobacco, alcohol and transportation and communication rebounded, but the year-on-year growth rate differentiated under the disturbance of different base effects. In January 2022, the month on month growth rates of transportation and communications (1.1%) and food, tobacco and alcohol (1.1%) increased by 2.4 and 1.4 percentage points respectively compared with the previous period, indicating the marginal recovery of inflation at the beginning of the year and before the festival. In January 2022, affected by the high / low base, the year-on-year growth rate of food, tobacco and alcohol / transportation and communication was - 1.8% / 5.2%, and the contribution rate to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI was - 0.5 percentage points / 0.8 percentage points.
Food inflation is affected by the high base in the short term and will still pick up in the long run. In January 2022, under the disturbance of high base, the year-on-year decline of pork price expanded from - 36.7% in the early stage to - 41.6%, and the year-on-year growth rate of fresh vegetable price decreased from 10.6% in the early stage to - 4.1%. But in the long run, the pressure of food inflation driven by pork prices still exists. At present, the pig grain ratio has rebounded from a low level. The pig stock at the end of 2021 (449 million pigs) is close to a record high (473 million pigs at the end of 2011). There is limited room to continue to rise. We expect the pig cycle to rebound in the first quarter of 2022 and drive the recovery of food inflation.
Under transportation and communications, fuel inflation fell and the price of communication tools was repaired. In January 2022, the price of vehicle fuel increased by 20.2% year-on-year, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous period; The year-on-year decline in the price of communication tools narrowed from - 4.3% in the early stage to - 3.3% in January. The degree of price repair (1.0 percentage points) was better than other industrial consumer goods: transportation tools (0.0 percentage points), clothing (- 0.2 percentage points) and household appliances (- 0.4 percentage points). Although the rebound in commodity prices combined with the increased demand before the Spring Festival has led to a slight rise in the price of oil and gas in the circulation field, in the long run, the upward action force of CPI will gradually shift from energy prices to food prices and the price repair of industrial consumer goods after the economic inflection point.
The year-on-year and month on month growth rate of PPI continued to fall. In January 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI decreased from 10.3% in the previous period to 9.1%, lower than the market expectation (9.5%); The month on month growth rate of PPI narrowed from - 1.2% in the previous period to - 0.2% in January. Among them, in terms of year-on-year growth, the price of means of production decreased from 13.4% in the previous period to 11.8% in January, and the price of means of living decreased from 1.0% in the previous period to 0.8% in January.
