Core view of this week: the electronics industry index fell 3.32% this week. Among the 350 targets, excluding the suspension targets, 159 rose throughout the week, 53 rose more than 3 points per week, 27 rose more than 5 points per week, 184 fell throughout the week, 109 fell more than 3 points per week, 77 fell more than 5 points per week, and 28 fell more than 10 points per week.
In the first week of the lunar new year, most of the voices of the whole A-share market focused on the discussion of growth and value. With the increasing expectation of interest rate hike in the United States, the growth sectors represented by electronics and new energy were further adjusted. The reason was that they were worried about whether high valuations could be better digested under the tightening of liquidity, However, after the collective adjustment of the sectors from the fourth quarter of 2021, the overall valuation of PCB, consumer electronics and many other sectors has fallen within a more reasonable range. Therefore, at the current node, investors should not be overly pessimistic and maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry.
Lack of core and material is the hottest topic in the electronics industry in 2021. This state has not been clearly improved since 2022. Recently, the Nikkei reported that because the delivery cycle of chip orders is still as long as two years, electronic product manufacturers are still struggling for chip capacity; Moreover, it is learned from other links of the industrial chain that after delivery of products due to lack of core still occurs; Last week’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) financial report pointed out that the current capacity utilization rate of the company is still as high as 99.4%, and the capital expenditure in 2022 is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10% in 2021. Many situations show that the phenomenon of core shortage cannot be comprehensively improved in the short term, which means that there will still be a clear gap between the supply and demand of some upstream raw materials. For example, in terms of ABF carrier sector, insiders generally believe that the supply and demand gap will be tightened as soon as 2023. Therefore, investors are advised to focus on the suppliers of core raw materials upstream of chips such as Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) , Ningbo Kangqiang Electronics Co.Ltd(002119) .
Last week, the PCB sector continued to adjust due to concerns about the impact of rising copper prices on profitability. We feel that we are too worried about standing at the current node: the sharp rise in the price of copper clad laminate last year was caused by the superposition of many factors, such as the rise in copper prices, the compression of copper foil capacity caused by the expansion of new energy battery production, and the rise in resin prices. At present, in addition to copper prices, Other factors have eased to varying degrees. Therefore, the price of copper clad laminate has not seen the general upward trend as in the first quarter of last year. Moreover, judging from the orders on hand of most listed PCB enterprises, it should not be difficult to achieve year-on-year growth in the first quarter. Investors should pay attention to the cost-effective allocation value of the whole PCB sector.
Industry focus: on February 10 local time, the research agency counterpoint released a report that in 2021, smartphone shipments in major Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam) hit a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 5% to 96 million.
Bloomberg’s mark gurman reiterated in a poweron newsletter that Apple plans to hold an online event on Tuesday, March 8, at which it will release new iphonese and iPad air models, both of which are expected to be equipped with a15 chips and support 5g communication.
On February 10, icinsights released its comprehensive forecast and analysis of the global semiconductor industry. The report predicts that total semiconductor sales will increase by 11% this year, following a strong growth of 25% in 2021 and 11% in 2020.
Key stocks and logic recommended this week: the targets of our key stock pool include: Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603890) , Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Ningbo Kangqiang Electronics Co.Ltd(002119) , Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) , Dbg Technology Co.Ltd(300735) , Bomin Electronics Co.Ltd(603936) , Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Sihui Fuji Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(300852) .
Risk tips: (1) systemic risk caused by the unexpected decline of the market; (2) Focus on the uncertainty risk of promoting relevant matters of the company.
