Benefit from multiple parties and highlight the value
There are still many bottlenecks in charging, and the development of power exchange can benefit many parties: 1) consumers: short time for power exchange and energy supplement, small battery loss and low purchase cost; 2) Vehicle manufacturers: solve consumers' concerns about car purchase and promote sales; 3) Battery recycling plant: under the power exchange mode, the power exchange plant will uniformly manage the battery for easy recycling; 4) Operators: good economic benefits and large development space for power exchange; 5) Power grid: reduce peak charging and reduce the burden of power grid. Considering comprehensively, under the new power system dominated by new energy, the development of power exchange is of strategic significance.
The industry is advancing rapidly, and the air outlet has arrived
The development of power exchange has been blocked in China, and the restrictive factors have been gradually solved at this stage: 1) the policy has been comprehensively changed, the power exchange standard has been gradually improved, and the state promotes the parallel development of charging and changing power; 2) Traditional car companies have successively launched replacement electric models, Weilai has led new forces, Ningde has entered the Bureau, and the matrix of replacement products has been gradually enriched; 3) Although the investment in the power station is high, the economic benefits of the operator are excellent. Therefore, we believe that China's power exchange industry is about to enter the fast lane of development, and the air outlet is coming.
The equipment side is the first to benefit, and the operation side has broad space
It is estimated that in 2025, the market scale of passenger car and heavy truck power exchange equipment will be 32.1 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 37.1 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 102%; The market scale of passenger cars and heavy trucks was 21.7 billion yuan and 124.7 billion yuan respectively, totaling 146.4 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 134%. The power change will also drive the demand for power batteries. It is estimated that the demand for power batteries will be 27.8gwh in 2025. At the initial stage of the development of the power exchange industry chain, equipment manufacturers will benefit before operators, and equipment manufacturers with channel advantages and first mover advantages will have obvious competitive advantages.
Industry rating and investment strategy
In the context of the rapid development of new energy vehicles, power exchange can make up the charging bottleneck and benefit all participants. Its development is of strategic significance. Now the constraints of power exchange have been gradually solved and the development space is broad. Therefore, the power exchange industry is rated as "overweight". Suggested layout: 1) power exchange equipment: the industrial chain takes the lead in benefiting. Enterprises with first mover advantage and stable customer resources will fully enjoy the industry growth dividend and occupy a higher market share. It is recommended to focus on Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) . It is recommended to pay attention to Hanchuan intelligence; 2) Power battery: focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) intended to build the world's largest power exchange service network, and Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) with greater performance flexibility due to power exchange; 3) Vehicle Enterprises: the sales volume of electric vehicle replacement and the construction of power replacement station complement each other. It is suggested to pay attention to Weilai, Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) , the pioneer of power replacement.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicles is less than expected; The promotion of power exchange standard is not as expected; The economic benefits of operators are less than expected; The sales volume of electric vehicles was lower than expected.
