Lithium ion batteries are widely used, and the cost of positive and negative materials accounts for a relatively high proportion: lithium batteries are widely used in the power battery market, consumer battery market and energy storage battery market. Its principle is to use the directional movement of lithium ions under the action of electric field to complete the charge transfer. Its positive and negative electrodes are compounds whose chemical potential changes with the content of lithium ions, Lithium ion battery is mainly composed of positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm, electrolyte, etc. Among them, the positive electrode (accounting for about 35% of the total cost) is the source of lithium ions that can be embedded and removed in the whole battery, and the negative electrode (accounting for about 12% of the total cost) is the receptor of lithium ions. Cathode materials include lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate, etc., and lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are the main materials; Negative electrode materials include natural graphite, artificial graphite, etc., and artificial graphite is the main material.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and the production capacity of positive and negative materials expands rapidly: in 2021, the output of positive materials in China was about 1111700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 100%. In 2021, the output of lithium battery cathode materials in China was about 815900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 76%. It mainly benefits from the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and the increasing demand for positive and negative materials. According to our calculation, in 2025, the global demand for positive and negative materials (power + consumption + energy storage) will increase from 1.18 million tons and 590000 tons in 2021 to 6.03 million tons and 3.02 million tons respectively. It is estimated that by 2025, China’s positive material capacity is expected to reach 6.4 million tons, and the negative material capacity is expected to reach 2.5 million tons. The compound growth rate of capacity expansion during 2021-2025 is about 44% and 26% respectively.
The investment of positive and negative materials and equipment is high, and the capacity expansion boosts the demand for equipment: 1) the positive electrode processing production line is composed of mixing system, sintering system, crushing system, water washing system (only high nickel), packaging system, powder conveying system and intelligent control system. Taking the high nickel cathode project with an annual output of 50000 tons of Changzhou Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) phase II project as an example, the equipment purchase cost is about 1.09 billion yuan, of which the value of roller kiln is the highest, accounting for nearly 36%. 2) The negative electrode material takes artificial graphite as an example. The basic steps include pretreatment, pyrolysis, grinding ball, graphitization (i.e. heat treatment, so that the originally disordered carbon atoms are arranged in order, and the key technical links), mixing, coating, mixing screening, weighing, packaging and warehousing. Taking the construction project of Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) high performance lithium ion battery cathode material with an annual output of 50000 tons as an example, the purchase cost of main equipment is about 617 million yuan. 3) According to our calculation, from 2021 to 2025, China’s annual demand for positive material equipment is about 16.2 billion yuan (excluding the market scale of precursor production equipment), positive precursor production equipment is about 8.1 billion yuan, and negative material equipment is about 5.9 billion yuan.
Benefit target: Hunan Baili Engineering Sci & Tech Co.Ltd(603959) – those with the whole process service capacity of positive and negative materials are scarce, the self-made rate of equipment is expected to continue to improve, and the lithium battery business is full of orders. Other beneficial objects such as Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) .
Risk tip: the capacity expansion of lithium battery anode and cathode materials is less than expected, the prosperity of new energy vehicle industry is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
