\u3000\u3000 Ruida Futures Co.Ltd(002961) (002961)
Core view
Traditional business and innovative business are flying together, and the futures industry has entered an upward cycle. 1) The expansion of product categories has led to the increase of market trading scale. By the end of 2021, the trading categories of futures and options have expanded to 94, the market trading volume has increased to 7.414 billion, the trading amount has increased to 581.19 trillion yuan, and the traditional brokerage business has developed rapidly. 2) A number of policies have been issued to encourage the development of innovative futures business. Asset management business and risk management business have broad prospects, which is conducive to optimizing the company's revenue structure, diversifying operation and improving profitability. 3) The development of futures market drives the industry forward, the decentralized competition pattern is expected to change, and the market concentration is expected to rise. By 2021h, Cr5, CR10 and Cr20 have increased to 38.4%, 57.1% and 80.1% respectively. High quality companies may obtain better development opportunities.
The strength of the company's traditional brokerage business is strong, and the double advantages of market share and commission rate drive the profit growth. 1) The company is a fully licensed futures company with comprehensive business and high equity concentration to ensure the continuity of the implementation of the company's strategy. 2) The company actively broadened the layout of offline outlets, steadily increased the scale of customers, increased the proportion of institutional customers' margin, and steadily increased the market share in 2021. 3) The commission rate of the company is higher than the industry average, reaching a record high of 1 / 10000 in 2021h, 0.75pbs higher than the industry average. The brokerage business revenue of the company leads the industry and promotes the steady growth of profits. 4) The profitability of the company is leading in the industry. In the third quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million yuan, more than that of last year. In 2021h, the company's annual roe reached 23.3%, higher than the industry average of 8.6%.
The innovative business layout of the company is far-reaching, the asset management business is leading the industry, and the risk management business is expected to become a new growth point. 1) The company has been deeply engaged in asset management business, actively practiced active management strategy, and steadily increased the proportion of collective management plan. In 2020, the revenue of asset management business reached 93 million yuan, ranking first in the industry. It is a well deserved leader in futures asset management industry. 2) The company actively developed OTC derivatives business, and the nominal principal and royalty income increased rapidly. In the first half of 2021, the nominal principal reached 15.033 billion yuan and the royalty income reached 37.9344 million yuan. 3) The types of market making business of the company have increased year by year, and the types of market making products involved have increased to 20 in 2021. In the future, the company will further expand market making services and realize the coverage of financial derivatives.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.12, 1.62 and 2.11 yuan respectively. The comparable company valuation method is adopted, and the reference index is p / E ratio. Referring to the adjusted average valuation of comparable companies, we give the company 22.0xpe in 2021, corresponding to the target price of 24.72 yuan. It is covered for the first time and given a buy rating.
Risk tips
Commodity price fluctuations exceeded expectations; Futures commission rate may decline on a large scale;
Regulatory policies may be tightened gradually; Business expansion may not be as expected.
