\u3000\u3000 Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383)
Core view
Gemdale Corporation(600383) released the performance express for 2021. It is expected that the total operating revenue in 2021 will increase by 18.2% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will decrease by 9% year-on-year, corresponding to EPS 2.10 yuan per share, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%.
The profit margin reached a low point and the annual performance was lower than expected. The company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 99.23 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. In 2021, the company's net profit margin was 9.5%, 2.9 percentage points lower than that in 2020. The company's income increase without profit increase was mainly due to the impact of the market downturn and epidemic situation in the second half of the year, the project settlement scale and gross profit margin were lower than expected, and the centralized delivery and settlement of some high price and low gross profit projects affected the overall profit level.
Sales increased against the trend, and land acquisition tended to be cautious in the fourth quarter. The company's sales amount in 2021 was 286.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, exceeding the annual sales target of 280 billion yuan. The sales area was 13.77 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and the corresponding average sales price was 20821 yuan / square meter, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In terms of land acquisition, the company added 15.21 million square meters in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, and the total land price was 115.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area ratio and sales amount ratio of land acquisition were 110.5% and 40.1% respectively, 28.2 and 15.5 percentage points lower than that in 2020. The expanded average floor price was 7567 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, and the ratio of land price to house price was 36.3%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2020. The decline of the ratio of land price to house price provided steady support for the gross profit margin carried forward by future performance.
Actively seize the financing window period to supplement funds, with significant cost advantages. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company successively completed two medium note issues of RMB 1.5 billion, with the corresponding financing costs of only 4.17% and 4.04% respectively, and completed the ABS issue of RMB 790 million in January 2022, with the cost of only 4.24%. As a representative of financially sound enterprises, the company benefited from the marginal improvement of the financing policies of real estate enterprises in the fourth quarter, and optimized the cash flow level with low-cost supplementary funds, which will help to seize the opportunity and realize further expansion in the process of industry liquidation in the future.
Investment suggestion: the company has the advantages of robustness, growth and financing. At the level of land expansion, it is also a relatively positive enterprise among brand real estate enterprises. The growth rate of sales performance in the future has great flexibility. At the same time, with the improvement of the quality of land obtained by the company, the level of carry forward profit margin is expected to stabilize and rebound, And with the help of capital advantages, further improve the market share under the background of industry clearing. With the gradual retreat of the impact of the reduction of everyone's life insurance, there is still a large upward space for the improvement of stock price based on future fundamentals. We predict that the company's EPS will be 2.10 yuan / 2.10 yuan / 2.22 yuan / share from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding PE will be 6.0 / 5.9 / 5.6 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the marginal improvement of policy is less than expected, the de capitalization of sales is less than expected, the impairment risk of high price in the early stage, the uncertainty of shareholder reduction, etc.
