\u3000\u3000 Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383)
Event: the company released 2021 performance express
In 2021, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 99.23 billion yuan (Unaudited, the same below), an increase of 18.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%.
Comments: in 2021, the sales increased against the trend, the operating profit margin of Q4 returned to 20%, and the land investment tended to be cautious.
1) in 2021, the company achieved sales growth against the trend, providing support for subsequent performance release. From January to December 2021, the company achieved a total contracted area of 13.77 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.25%; The total contract amount reached 286.71 billion yuan, an increase of 18.15% year-on-year. Benefiting from good brand strength and product strength, the company is one of the few real estate development enterprises to achieve the annual sales target in 2021. At the beginning of 2022, affected by the repeated epidemic and the market environment, residents' willingness to buy houses is still weak, and the overall commercial housing transaction in the industry was sluggish in January. In January 2022, the company achieved a contracted area of 559000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 44.87%; The contract amount reached 14.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.36%. Considering the interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2022 and the rectification of pre-sale fund supervision, the credit supply of residents' improved housing mortgage loan is expected to be further supported. At the same time, residents' house purchase preference will be gradually repaired. It is expected that the company will be able to eliminate it in the future.
2) in Q4 of 2021, the company's operating profit margin returned to 20% +, and the subsequent operation is stable and can be expected. In 2021, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 99.23 billion yuan, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%; The core net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%; Eps2 was recorded 1 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. In the Q4 single quarter of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 45.35 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year; The operating profit was 9.54 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year; The operating profit margin of the company rebounded from the low point of 8.8% in 2021q2, recorded 15.7% in Q3 and increased to 21.0% in Q4.
3) land investment tends to be cautious and the cost of land acquisition is reduced. In 2021, the company's land investment slowed down, and the company added about 15.21 million square meters of land storage construction area throughout the year, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%; The total price of newly added soil storage was 115.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%; The average price of land acquisition was 7567 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%; The corresponding land acquisition intensity (area and caliber) is about 110.5%, down 28.2pcts compared with the same period in 2020.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: affected by the continuous decline of the industry's profit space, we lowered the company's forecast EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 2.10, 2.29 and 2.51 yuan respectively (the reduction range is 17.5%, 19.0% and 20.7% respectively); The current share price corresponds to the PE valuation of 6.1, 5.6 and 5.1 times from 2021 to 2023. At present, the company's share price fluctuates slightly under the influence of the market environment, but on the whole, it still has long-term competitiveness. The company's financial stability, obvious credit advantages, stable dividends for many years, continuous repair of operating profit margin, optimistic about the company's future development potential and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the severity and duration of regulation policies in the real estate industry may exceed expectations; Sales progress is limited by bank loan concentration management or less than expected; The project construction and settlement progress may be less than expected.
