\u3000\u3000 Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383)
The company announced the performance forecast for 2021. The annual operating revenue was 99.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%.
Revenue carryover was stable, and profitability declined slightly more than expected. In 2021, the company's project carry forward was stable, with revenue increasing by 18.2% year-on-year, performance negative growth of 9.0% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to parent decreased by 2.8pct to 9.5%. We believe that it is mainly due to the sharp decline in the gross profit margin carried forward. It can be seen that the operating profit margin of the company decreased by 8.0pct to 16.2%. In addition, affected by the market downturn in the second half of 2021, real estate companies generally have the pressure of inventory impairment, or another reason for the pressure on the company's performance. With the gradual clarification of the policy, we expect the Q2 market to recover in 2022, and we expect the company's performance in 2022 to be flexible.
In 2021, sales still maintained a double-digit growth rate, and there was sufficient carry forward inventory. In 2021, the company's cumulative sales amount was 286.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. The monthly cumulative sales area was 13.77 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. The annual sales amount of the company ranked 11th in the Kerui list, up 2 places from last year. Thanks to the good urban layout and product strength, the company achieved an average sales price of 20821 yuan / ping in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. There is little probability that the gross profit margin will continue to decline, and there are sufficient carryover inventory, which will advantageously ensure the realization of future profits.
Investment tends to be cautious, and the investment intensity may be strengthened in the beginning of the year. The company invested actively in the first half of 2021, with a total of 51 land acquisitions. In the second half of the year, with the pressure of new house sales, the investment tended to be cautious, and a total of 12 land acquisitions were obtained. In 2021, a total of 7.854 million square meters of land reserves were added, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%. The cumulative amount of land acquisition was 61.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.3%, and the investment intensity was 21.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8 percentage points. The company did not add new land reserves in October and November, and resumed land acquisition in December, indicating that the company has basically adapted to the rhythm of regulation. Although land acquisition in the open market has slowed down, the industry is in a downward period, There may still be opportunities in the M & a market.
Maintain the buy rating and adjust the target price to 17.28 yuan (the original target price is 17.08 yuan). According to the performance forecast, we adjusted the company's EPS forecast for 2021-2023 to 2.10/2.70/3.07 yuan (the original forecast was 2.44/2.71/3.09 yuan), mainly by reducing the expectation of the gross profit margin of real estate project settlement. The valuation of comparable companies in 2022 is 6.4x. We give the company a valuation of 6.4x in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 17.28 yuan.
Risk tips
Sales in the real estate market were significantly lower than expected.
Counter cyclical regulation is less than expected.
Uncertainty of shareholder reduction.
