\u3000\u3000 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (605499)
Event:
Recently, the company released a performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.978 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 40.72%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.193 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 47.01%); 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.418 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 54.95%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 873 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 82.3%), which is in line with the disclosure of the previous company's performance forecast.
Investment summary:
The performance express released by the company is in line with the previous performance forecast disclosure. We are optimistic about the company's ability in main product maintenance, product innovation, channel development and brand construction, and pay attention to the progress of new capacity construction. We make the following comments:
Products: the main products are basically stable, the product structure is optimized, and the ability to promote new products is strong.
Continuous development of energy drinks. In the main product Dongpeng special drink, it emphasizes the scientific proportion, lysine and B vitamins, actively creates the "energy +" product line, and forms the product matrix of three types of energy drinks, non energy drinks and packaged drinking water.
The product structure was further optimized. The company continues to launch Dongpeng Jiaxi, 0 sugar special drink, Dongpeng big coffee, "Danone" and other products, enriching the product matrix by adding different concepts such as bubbles, 0 sugar and 0 fat, and naturally extracted caffeine into energy drinks to meet consumers' personalized, scene oriented, convenient and high-end consumption needs.
\u3000\u3000? The launch of new products has received good response. After the listing of 0 sugar special drink, it has brought hundreds of thousands of new customers and strong development potential without comprehensive promotion and separation from traditional products in the network layout.
Channels: actively explore channels, improve the market share of products, and optimize the proportion of regional revenue. Adopt the marketing mode of "company intensive cultivation + large circulation" and combine Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) to improve the marketing ability.
Mainly in distribution mode. It has formed three major marketing headquarters in Guangdong, China and directly operated across the country, and six business divisions in Guangxi, central China, East China, North China, southwest and North China. The company has formed more than 2000 distributors, covering more than 1.79 million effective terminal outlets.
Direct marketing, online and other modes are combined. Among them, online channels focus more on improving brand exposure. The pursuit of national development, multi regional integration into the country, the proportion of direct sales revenue continued to increase, and the process of nationalization appeared.
Intensive cultivation in strong regions such as Guangdong, Guangxi, East China and central China. Guangdong and other intensive farming markets will further develop low-energy cities, promote non energy drinks such as orange lemon tea, Chenpi special drink and water outside Dongpeng special drink, and further accelerate the sinking of channels and increase the penetration of products.
Brand: energy beverage leader, leading the expansion of the industry. Since 2006, the compound annual growth rate of China's soft drink retail sales has been 8.71%. The growth rate has declined during the epidemic, but the growth rate has rebounded to 5.5% in 21 years, and the retail market space has reached US $1.79 billion. In the future, with the upgrading of consumption and the continuous expansion of consumption scenes, the energy beverage track will be further expanded. As a leading enterprise of energy drinks in China, the company may resonate with the industry and develop hand in hand in the future.
Capacity: after the completion of the new base, the capacity will be increased by 1.1 million tons to alleviate the capacity bottleneck. After the completion of bases in South China, Chongqing and Nanning, it is expected to form a production capacity of 1.1 million tons, which will be gradually released during the five-year production period, which is expected to form an effective support for the company's performance.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.193 billion yuan, 1.654 billion yuan and 2.088 billion yuan respectively, EPS will be 2.98 yuan, 4.14 yuan and 5.22 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 60 times, 44 times and 34 times respectively, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: food safety risks; Industry competition intensifies; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
