Looking back on Wednesday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes differentiated after opening higher in the morning, and the rebound pattern of the Shanghai index was obvious, while the gem index and the Shenzhen component index plunged and weakened for a time. With the support of large infrastructure, the three indexes ushered in a rebound resonance. Unfortunately, the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index gradually fell in the afternoon. Fortunately, the overall performance of the Shanghai index was relatively strong, fluctuated at a high level throughout the day, and finally closed in the red market.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the rebound pattern of the two cities continued on Wednesday, and the market outlet switched from growth theme to steady growth direction again. under the current steady growth force and the opening of the easing cycle, the advantages of undervalued sectors will still ferment, and the subdivided sectors will be favored by funds in turn . For the track direction, we still maintain the attitude of concussion and bottoming, and some subdivision leaders with reasonable valuation can maintain key attention.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that on Wednesday, the Shanghai stock index continued the shock rebound trend, the trend of infrastructure related sectors was strong, and the market profit-making effect was excellent, with the gradual repair of market sentiment, the market is expected to stabilize, pay attention to the release of volume and energy and the rotation of sectors . Operationally, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, building materials, building decoration Steel and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) mentioned that the current market continues to be in the stock game stage, and the off-site capital has a heavy wait-and-see mentality. It still needs to be observed whether the track stocks and cycle industries can drive the stock index out of the market. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
In addition, Huaxin Securities said that A-share volume energy is still maintained at a low level, which is a warning signal. Under the background of non expansion of volume energy, it is difficult to undertake the large unwinding selling pressure . Therefore, from the perspective of the market, the Shanghai Stock Index has accelerated its rise in large quantities, and there is probably the possibility of profit taking.
Macroscopically, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that PPI in January fell to 9.1% year-on-year from 10.3% in the previous month, and has decreased continuously by 4.4 percentage points since October last year. With the reduction of supply constraints and weakening demand, the price of industrial products has gradually declined; In January, the CPI fell to 0.9% year-on-year from 1.5% of the previous month. Due to the relatively low food prices, the core inflation continued to be weak, and the consumer prices returned to a low level. From the current high-frequency data, we expect the CPI in February to continue the downward trend year-on-year .
Since January, the rise in the futures price of industrial products has been significantly greater than that in the spot, which is reflected in the sharp contraction of the basis of many industrial products. Behind this is the contradiction between the strong expectation of steady growth and the weak actual demand. In January, social finance increased by nearly 1 trillion yuan year-on-year, resulting in the market being more optimistic about the follow-up demand. However, the hidden worry is that the real estate market is weak. Relying solely on finance and infrastructure can not reverse the slowing trend of industrial product demand, we expect that after the short-term industrial product price rebound, the follow-up industrial product price will still tend to fall, In the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI decreased significantly from a high level .
In terms of operational strategy, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that is the main line of "stable growth". The policy continues to make efforts and is confirmed. Before the effect of stable growth is confirmed, it still has a high cost performance . Including transportation infrastructure related buildings, building materials, steel, etc., optimizing power grid consumption capacity, related green power, power grid construction, transmission and distribution, UHV, etc., as well as gas and drainage pipe network construction related to urban renewal and transformation.
After the downturn of the real estate sector and the improvement of the {123567} financial asset control {123567} after the downturn of the real estate sector {123567} and {123567} reached the bottom, including the gradual improvement of the {123567} of the bank's {123567} financial assets.
In the consumer sector, service consumption recovery logic continues to strengthen the travel chain and mandatory consumer goods with room for price increase. Service consumption is continuing to recover. With the addition of Pfizer covid-19 drug import approval, the recovery expectation is strengthened. Airport, aviation, railway, catering, tourism, duty-free and other travel related industries usher in allocation opportunities, At the same time, dairy products, condiments, meat products and other required consumer goods that benefit from the transmission of PPI to CPI prices also have medium and long-term configuration value.
In addition, Minsheng Securities pointed out that the biggest opportunity for in the future is beyond the consensus, which will be different from the market dominated by the past core track . It should be emphasized that avoiding institutions is not simply starting from the game. On the contrary, it is precisely because the effective pricing of the past era by the whole market institutional investors in the past 3-5 years has fully discovered the value of the past economic fundamentals. While the current environment changes again, the traditional economy and those forgotten corners in the past should be paid more attention .
The agency further analyzed that the most promising direction of lies in the resource cycle and finance . Among them, the certainty of long inflation will be stronger than the demand itself: nonferrous metals (copper, gold and aluminum), crude oil (oil and gas exploitation, oil transportation) and coal; Banking, real estate, construction, steel. As the current situation of low - and middle-income people gets more attention, the consumption of Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) will also appear. We pay attention to the middle and low-end, second-line and regional brands. Despite the possibility of periodic rebound of growth stocks, we still suggest that the direction should be on the path of the above fundamentals, of which is relatively dominated by energy construction (green power and power grid) and digital economy to ease the contradiction of inflation.
