Aerogels are better insulation materials, longer life, better waterproofing and fire resistance than traditional thermal insulation materials. They are the most efficient insulation materials at present, and conform to the trend of energy saving and emission reduction. Aerogel is a solid material with nano porous network structure and filled with gas dispersed medium in the pores. At present, the main application areas include petrochemical oil pipe and high-temperature reaction device insulation, lithium battery Pack external thermal insulation, lithium battery core insulation, building insulation external wall insulation, outdoor sporting goods and so on. Compared with the traditional thermal insulation materials, 1) its thermal insulation performance is 2-8 times that of the traditional material, so the aerogel consumption is less under the same heat preservation effect. 2) the aerogel replacement cycle is about 20 years, while the replacement period of the traditional thermal insulation material is about 5 years, so the whole life cycle cost is lower.
In the past 5 years, China’s aerogel market has achieved rapid growth in production and rapid cost reduction through technological progress. Currently, it has a very competitive price performance in petrochemical pipelines, high-temperature reactors, heat pipe networks and lithium batteries. The demand for switching from downstream leading enterprises is strong, and at the same time, under the current dual carbon policy, energy conservation will become a chemical, energy, The theme of the future development of the construction industry. Aerogel has significant energy saving effect compared with traditional materials, and the industry demand will be promoted rapidly under the promotion of dual carbon policy. In the 2015-2020 year, the annual compound growth rate of China’s aerogel materials was 38.5%, and the current cost has dropped by over 80% over 10 years ago. We believe that the aerogel industry is at a rapid development stage of the inflection point. The reason is that the application of aerogel petrochemical pipeline and lithium battery has already had high cost performance. The leading enterprises of PetroChina and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) have switched from traditional heat insulation materials to aerogels, and the benchmarking effect of the head enterprises will take the take-off of the aerogel industry. According to Aspen’s prediction, the global market space will total 700 billion yuan in the next 10 years. We estimate that by 2025, the demand for aerogels for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and central heating pipelines will reach 15 billion 500 million yuan, the demand for lithium batteries for aerogels will reach 2 billion yuan, and the demand for aerogels for building materials will reach 730 million yuan, with a total demand of 18 billion 500 million. In 2020, China’s aerogel output value was about 1 billion 600 million yuan, and the average annual growth rate will be 63.6% in the next 5 years.
A number of enterprises have entered the air gels industry to accelerate the expansion of the capacity of the industry. At present, many listed companies have started to build aerogel production capacity in the past two years through equity investment. According to our statistics, the existing aerogels in China have about 157 thousand party capacity, and the expansion of the mainstream enterprises is about 160 thousand parties, with 2 years’ production cycle. The total capacity of the whole industry in 2023 will double on 2021, and the supply side will grow at an average annual rate of 50%. Among the new entrants with multiple backgrounds, we look at the core competitiveness of each player from three dimensions: in the short term, the breakthrough and competitive advantage of drying technology; In the medium term, the division of labor in the industrial chain; In the long run, it has the advantage of self-sufficiency in raw materials.
Suggestions: Jiangxi Chen Guang New Materials Co.Ltd(605399) , Jiangxi Hungpai New Material Co.Ltd(605366) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , Pan Asian Microvent Tech (Jiangsu) Corporation(688386) , Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co.Ltd(002274) , Shanxi Huayang New Materialco.Ltd(600281)
Risk hints: aerogels enter the enterprise technology breakthrough is lower than expected and production capacity is lower than expected, resulting in slow release of supply side capacity, which led to the industry postponing industrialization. Downstream demand for aerogel switching is lower than expected.
