After rising sharply for several days in succession, on February 15, the tourism and hotel sector as a whole suffered a sharp decline, and Xi'An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) which led the rise of the sector a few days ago also finally fell by the limit.
Previously, the market had expected the market of tourism and hotel sector, but there was a correction after the sharp rise of the sector. Is there still variables in the recovery of tourism?
"The performance inflection point of tourism and other industries is indeed expected to appear in 2022. Therefore, foresight funds began to flow into industries suppressed by the epidemic in the early stage, such as air tourism, especially some long-term funds." Ding Bingzhong, an asset partner of Shanghai's 1898 movement and a doctor of finance from Xi'an Jiaotong University, said in an interview with Securities Daily.
However, there is also a view that "from the perspective of tourism profitability and certainty, relevant listed companies will face greater uncertainty in the next three years." Wei Xiang, a professor at the Institute of financial strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Securities Daily.
fell sharply after rising sharply in a row
Before February 15, Xi'An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) gained four daily limit sectors in the six trading days after the Spring Festival (including the daily limit for three consecutive days). In addition, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) daily limit for three consecutive days and Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) daily limit for two consecutive days. On February 14, five stocks in the A-share tourism and hotel sector rose by the limit, while Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Xi'An Tourism Co.Ltd(000610) rose by more than 7%, and Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) , Western Regions Tourism Development Co.Ltd(300859) , Tempus Global Business Service Group Holding Ltd(300178) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) rose by more than 6%. As of the closing of the day, the tourism and hotel sector index closed at 13778.46, up 3.89%.
Affected by this, "the inflection point of tourism" and "the horn of tourism recovery" have become popular in the market.
East Asia Qianhai Securities Research Report believes that the Spring Festival and Winter Olympics can be regarded as the starting point of the recovery of tourism, tourism retail and other industries. In the future, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the tourist and travel traffic is expected to continue to rise, and the overall recovery of the corresponding industries is expected to show an accelerated trend. According to the research report, the industry's lowest point has passed, and the recovery of prosperity in the future is full of power.
According to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, during the golden week of the Spring Festival in 2022, 251 million people traveled in China, realizing China's tourism revenue of 289.198 billion yuan.
In addition, on February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration conducted emergency review and approval in accordance with the relevant provisions of the drug administration law and the special drug approval procedures, and conditionally approved the import registration of the combined packaging of nevitavir tablets / ritonavir tablets (i.e. paxlovid) of Pfizer covid-19 virus treatment drug.
"This news is interpreted by the market as that with China's approval of the use of specific drugs, coupled with its accumulated covid-19 treatment experience and the current decline in the death rate of covid-19 variant, the adverse impact of the epidemic on the economy is expected to end and the flow of personnel will further recover." Ding Bingzhong said that under such expectation, the market recognized tourism, hotel, aviation and other industries will usher in performance repair.
However, at the opening of February 15, most stocks in the A-share tourism and hotel sector fell. On the same day, the tourism and hotel sector index closed at 13197.85, down 4.21%, and six stocks fell by the limit.
there are still uncertainties in the industry recovery
Wei Xiang believes that this round of fluctuations in the A-share tourism and hotel sector may be due to the interference of the market expectation by the news about outbound and inbound tourism. In the short term, the market's expectation of outbound travel has driven Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) to rise continuously, but at present, its uncertainty is insufficient. In the long run, with the issuance of the 14th five year plan for tourism development, inbound tourism may receive renewed attention.
East Asia Qianhai Securities Research Report believes that from the perspective of the "14th five year plan" development plan, the state attaches great importance to the development of China's tourism. At the same time, on the premise that the international epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the entry-exit may be gradually liberalized and the entry-exit tourism will gradually recover.
In Wei Xiang's view, tourism is a sector that is relatively vulnerable to the impact of policies. Changes in travel policies and expected changes will increase the volatility of the sector. "Among them, some listed companies in tourism are small in scale and are very vulnerable to hot money speculation."
"In the medium and long term, the performance inflection point of tourism and other industries is expected to appear in 2022. However, the short-term positive heat has decreased, which does not rule out the possible adjustment of the sector." Ding Bingzhong said that from a fundamental point of view, the tourism sector stocks that are currently hot in the market still lack the support of performance.
Wei Xiang said that the aviation industry and the hotel industry can be regarded as the mainstay of the tourism industry. Investors who hope to obtain long-term investment value from the tourism industry can pay attention to the changes of these two segments. "I'm afraid 2022 will not be a year of comprehensive recovery of tourism, but it should show more structural opportunities than 2021."
