Main points:
Market changes
On February 15, the market rose sharply, of which the Shanghai stock index closed up 0.5% and the gem index closed up 3.09%. At the industry level, power equipment, beauty care, medicine and biology, electronics, national defense and military industry and other industries with large early decline led the increase.
The suppression of overseas risk appetite is eliminated, and the growth style after full adjustment in the early stage has a good layout and cost performance
Since the middle of December 2021, the growth style has continued to weaken and downturn, mainly due to two adverse effects: on the one hand, the tone of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting significantly changed in the middle of December 2021, and since then, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase has been surging and strengthened, resulting in the rapid rise of US bond yields at this stage, The periodic adjustment of US stocks has been started, and the adjustment range of NASDAQ is much higher than that of S & P 500 and Dow Jones industrial index. The risk preference of US stocks inhibits the growth style of a shares; On the other hand, the relatively high valuation, the decline in growth expectations, the continued weakness of fund issuance since the beginning of the year and the forced trading of some funds in the market have exacerbated the suppression of risk appetite of growth style.
At present, the allocation value of the growth style is constantly highlighting: first, the previous two restraining factors have been significantly improved. Among them, the mapping risk caused by the phased adjustment of US stocks has been basically eliminated with the confirmation of the expectation and rhythm of interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at the end of January. At present, the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve has reached the extreme. After the digestion and full response of the early market, US stocks stopped falling and rebounded, and the risk transmission of A-Shares and growth style ended. In addition, after significant adjustment at this stage, the growth style valuation has dropped significantly, and the pessimistic expectations of fund issuance and market capital trading have been released to a great extent. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicle sales continued to exceed 130%, and the year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor sales remained high, which effectively dispelled the market's concerns about the decline of growth style prosperity. Second, the time and space for this round of growth style adjustment are basically in place, at the end of the benign adjustment period of the transition from the second stage to the third stage of the market, and actively layout the third stage of growth and pull out the valuation market at the right time. Compared with the comparable cases of benign adjustment in the past, in terms of time dimension, the growth style has been continuously adjusted for nearly 2 months since mid December 2021, which is between 1-3 months, higher than the average adjustment time of 1.5 months. In terms of spatial dimension, as of February 14, the growth style has been adjusted by 16%, which is between 15-20% of the benign adjustment in the past and close to the average range of 18%. In the future, with the continuation of high prosperity, loose liquidity and policy support for the development of new energy vehicles and semiconductor industry, the growth style is expected to deduce the valuation market in the third stage.
The growth layout is now a good opportunity. The "double carbon" and semiconductor, which are still strong in the early stage, exceed the expected direction
The pessimism is significantly released. The growth style at the end of benign adjustment is a good opportunity for positive layout. The focus direction is: first, the "double carbon" direction with strong support, broad space for long-term progress and sustained prosperity exceeding expectations, including the new energy vehicle chain and the new energy chain. The historical review shows that strong industries are consistent in the three stages of growth style; Second, electronic semiconductors, national defense and military industries with continuous policy support and improving prosperity.
In addition to the layout and growth, we can also pay attention to the main line of "stable growth". The policies continue to be strengthened and confirmed, and the stable growth effect still has high cost performance before it is confirmed. Including transportation infrastructure related buildings, building materials, steel, etc., optimizing power grid consumption capacity, related green power, power grid construction, transmission and distribution, UHV, etc., as well as gas and drainage pipe network construction related to urban renewal and transformation. The financial sector includes the real estate sector where the regulation and control policies are slowing down day by day, the boom has reversed after the downturn hit the bottom, and the banks whose asset quality has improved with the improvement of the economic situation and the gradual liquidation of real estate risks. In the consumption sector, the service consumption recovery logic has been continuously strengthened, and the travel chain and the required consumer goods with room for price increase have been selected. The service consumption is continuously recovering. With the addition of Pfizer covid-19 drug import approval, the recovery expectation has been strengthened, and the travel related industries such as Airport, aviation, railway, catering, tourism and tax exemption have ushered in allocation opportunities, At the same time, dairy products, condiments, meat products and other required consumer goods that benefit from the transmission of PPI to CPI prices also have medium and long-term configuration value.
Risks suggest that China's policy tightening is higher than expected; The US economy has deteriorated more than expected; The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates continued to strengthen.
