Core view
This week, the turnover of new houses and second-hand houses decreased year-on-year. The number of new houses sold in 47 cities was 21000, a year-on-year decrease of 34.5%; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 12000, a year-on-year decrease of 27.0%; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities was 3000, 7000 and 1000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 11.2%, – 15.2% and – 73.5% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 7000, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 6000, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%; 1、 The number of second-hand houses sold in the second and third tier cities was 0.2, 0.4 and 1000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 28.4%, – 11.6% and – 28.7% respectively.
The inventory of new houses decreased year-on-year, and the decontamination cycle increased year-on-year. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.03 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 13.8 months, a year-on-year increase of 5.5 months; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 559000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 21000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 9.5 months, a year-on-year increase of 2.0 months; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 262000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 7000 units. The decontamination cycle was 8.3 months, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9 months. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 206000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 34000 units. The decontamination cycle was 9.8 months, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 months. The number of new houses in the third tier cities was 91000, with a year-on-year increase of 14000. The decontamination cycle was 15.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 19.8 months.
The overall land market fell in volume and price compared with last week, and the land premium rate increased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 3, with a year-on-year decrease of 99.6%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 40000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 99.9%; The total price of land sold was 40 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 100.0%; The average floor price of land traded was 969 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 71.4%; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 31.27%, a year-on-year increase of 77.1%.
Investment advice
On February 10, according to the financial Associated Press and other media reports, relevant departments have issued and formulated national measures for the supervision and management of pre-sale funds of commercial housing. We believe that the main purpose of this policy is to correct some cities that have excessively tightened the supervision of pre-sale funds, and alleviate the capital pressure of real estate enterprises to a certain extent. If the policy is officially introduced, it will have different effects on different cities and real estate enterprises: we believe that if the regulatory proportion of pre-sale funds is reduced, the impact on the third and fourth tier cities may be greater than that of the first and second tier cities. On the one hand, the regulatory policies for pre-sale funds of high-energy cities are relatively standardized and complete, and there is little room for adjustment by the new deal; For low-energy cities with imperfect original relevant systems, the new deal can prevent the funds of real estate enterprises from being excessively occupied in their accounts. On the other hand, because the pre-sale conditions of high-energy cities are relatively stricter, the time point of reaching the pre-sale conditions is relatively later than that of low-energy cities; At the same time, banks are more confident in the delivery capacity of projects in the first and second tier cities. Mortgage loans for some third and fourth tier cities usually have higher requirements for project construction progress. Therefore, mortgage loans are relatively earlier in high-energy cities than in low-energy cities. Therefore, the cycle from pre-sale to mortgage loans of real estate enterprises in the first and second tier cities is shorter, It will also reach the regulatory limit of pre-sale funds approved according to the value of goods faster. Therefore, if the supervision of pre-sale funds is relaxed, it will have a greater impact on the third and fourth tier cities, which is more conducive to shorten the return time of sales funds of real estate enterprises in the third and fourth tier cities. On the whole, we believe that the policy has released some positive signals to the industry, but we still need to wait for the promulgation of the detailed rules. There may be two directions for the future adjustment of the supervision of pre-sale funds: 1) the selection and supervision of custody banks will be more standardized; 2) The regulatory proportion of pre-sale funds may be reduced, and real estate enterprises are expected to meet the requirements of withdrawing and using excess funds faster, so as to alleviate the pressure of cash flow turnover. At this stage, favorable policies are constantly coming, which is in line with our previous expectation that there will be greater improvement in policies in the first quarter. We maintain the view that “the first quarter is a better configuration window period”. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
