\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751)
Event: on February 14, the company announced that it planned to use its own funds of 163-325 million yuan to repurchase the listed and circulating shares in the next 12 months for equity incentive / employee stock ownership plan, and the repurchase price should not exceed 650 yuan / share. According to the maximum repurchase price, the upper and lower limits of the number of repurchased shares are 500000 and 250000 shares respectively, accounting for 0.46% and 0.23% of the total share capital respectively.
Core view: share repurchase is mainly to establish and improve the company's long-term incentive mechanism, but also demonstrates the confidence of the company's long-term development prospects in the future. From the perspective of historical equity incentive plan, the company is mainly inclined to middle and senior managers and core backbone personnel, aiming to fully mobilize their enthusiasm; From the business side, in 2022, TOPCON / hjt dual technology routes will develop in parallel. It is expected that the former will enter the production capacity intensive layout period, and the commercialization process of the latter will advance steadily. The demand for the company's screen printing complete sets of equipment and photovoltaic laser equipment is expected to remain strong. Hjt core PECVD equipment has also begun to recognize revenue and entered the performance cashing period. In general, the company's performance growth guarantee is strong.
The repurchased shares are mainly used for equity incentive and employee stock ownership plan. In order to establish and improve the company's long-term incentive mechanism, the company has implemented two equity incentive plans in August 2019 and September 2020 respectively, granting 796600 and 466500 shares respectively, accounting for 1.53% and 0.9% of the total share capital at that time. The incentive objects in phase I include the company's deputy general manager, board secretary and 143 core technical (business) personnel, and the incentive objects in phase II are 187 core technical (business) personnel. Historically, it is expected that the company's future incentive and employee stock ownership plan will be inclined to the company's middle and senior managers and core backbone personnel, so as to fully mobilize their enthusiasm and ensure the long-term and stable development of the company.
Share repurchase demonstrates the confidence of the company in its future development prospects. TOPCON / hjt dual technology routes develop in parallel to ensure the continuous growth of the company's performance:
(1) TOPCON: it is expected to enter the stage of capacity intensive layout, mostly vertically integrated enterprises. The newly laid large-scale perc production lines from 2020 to 2021 basically reserve upgrading interfaces. Considering the factors such as technical maturity, cost performance and adaptive size, the perc production capacity put into operation before 2020 has limited space for further transformation and upgrading, and vertical integration enterprises prefer to replace production capacity through new production lines. According to Jibang consulting, by the end of 21, TOPCON's planned capacity had reached 95.3gw, 8.75gw had been built and 86.5gw was under construction / to be built. The new steel sector printing technology launched by Maiwei has further improved the printing quality and cost control, and the market position of silk screen printing is stable. In the period of continuous expansion of downstream production capacity, the company's perc + equipment business (screen printing and photovoltaic laser equipment) is expected to maintain a high growth trend;
(2) hjt: the commercialization process is advancing steadily. According to our calculation, the landing scale is expected to reach 20GW in 2022. In terms of conversion efficiency, in 2022, with the application of microcrystalline silicon technology, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of hjt is expected to stabilize at more than 25.5%; In terms of cost, the silver slurry localization / silver clad copper technology is gradually mature, and is expected to be applied in 2022 to catch up with the cost of perc. According to Jibang consulting, by the end of the 21st century, the planned capacity of hjt had reached 148.2gw, 6.35gw had been built and 141.9gw was under construction / to be built. Maiwei has launched the third generation of large capacity PECVD equipment and has completed the verification of microcrystalline technology. From the bidding in 2021, its core equipment accounts for more than 60% of the market, with obvious first mover advantage.
The company's hjt equipment industrialization fixed increase project was officially started: the company's fixed increase was issued in December 21, with an issue price of 645 yuan / share and a raised fund of 2.812 billion, of which 2.3 billion was invested in the heterojunction Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery chip equipment industrialization project, which was officially started in February 2022, It is expected to form an annual production capacity of 40 sets of hjt core equipment (PECVD, PVD) and automation equipment within three years, with an annual output value of 6 billion. From the perspective of business, the company plans the production capacity of heavy vacuum equipment in advance and is expected to further expand its competitive advantage in the future with the expansion of production in hjt industry.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.135 billion yuan, 4.305 billion yuan and 6.296 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.2%, 37.3% and 46.2% respectively, and the net profit will be 630, 858 and 1.253 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.6%, 36.3% and 46.0% respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 77, 57 and 39 times respectively; Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 610 yuan, which is equivalent to 52 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2023.
Risk warning: the new downstream installed capacity is less than expected; The commercialization progress of hjt is less than expected; Competition in the equipment industry has intensified.
