\u3000\u3000 Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383)
Matters:
Gemdale Corporation(600383) announced the performance express for 2021. It is estimated that the total operating revenue in 2021 will increase by 18.2% year-on-year, the total profit will decrease by 21% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will decrease by 9% year-on-year, corresponding to EPS 2.2 per share 10 yuan.
Ping An View:
The settlement scale and gross profit margin are lower than expected, and the performance is under pressure in the short term. The company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 99.23 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2%; Operating profit and total profit decreased by 21.1% and 21.0% respectively year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. The decline in gross profit margin and settlement projects during the year was lower than expected. In 2021, the operating profit accounted for 16.2% of the total operating revenue, 8 percentage points lower than that in 2020. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company accounted for 59.8% of the total profit, an increase of 7.9 percentage points over 2020, and the equity proportion of settlement projects increased.
Sales grew against the trend and were relatively cautious in land acquisition. The company's sales amount in 2021 was 286.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, exceeding the target (280 billion yuan). The sales area was 13.77 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The growth rate of sales amount and area far exceeded that of the same period in China (4.8% and 1.9%). The average sales price was 20821 yuan / m2, up 2.5% year-on-year. Affected by the slowdown in land acquisition in 2021h2, a new construction area of 15.21 million square meters was added in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, and the total land price was 115.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area ratio and sales amount ratio of land acquisition were 110.5% and 40.1% respectively, 28.2 and 15.5 percentage points lower than that in 2020, and the intensity decreased or had a certain impact on the supply of goods in 2022. The average floor price was 7567 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, and the ratio of land price to house price was 36.3%, 3.8 percentage points lower than that in 2020.
Investment suggestion: considering the possible slowdown in sales, pressure on profit margin and provision for impairment caused by short-term industrial pain, the EPS forecast of the company from 2021 to 2023 is lowered to 2.10 yuan (formerly 2.56 yuan), 2.21 yuan (formerly 2.82 yuan) and 2.32 yuan (formerly 3.10 yuan). The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 6.0 times, 5.7 times and 5.4 times respectively. The company's outstanding resources are sufficient, the sales growth rate is high, and the performance carry forward is still supported; With sound finance and outstanding comprehensive advantages, it is expected to go through the cycle in the medium and long term, promote the steady rise of market share and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) if the pressure of de commercialization in the real estate market continues, resulting in the exchange of sales price for volume, the company's settlement gross profit margin will further decline, and there will be an impairment risk of high price in the early stage; 2) If the policy care is less than expected, it will have a negative impact on the scale development of the company, resulting in lower performance than expected; 3) The proportion of equity in the company's land reserve is relatively low, and the company will face the risk of diluting the net profit attributable to the parent due to the increase of the proportion of minority shareholders' profits and losses in the future.
