Last week's three fold rise in the US stock market and the three fold rise in US inflation expectations. At the level of industrial trends, the Biden government announced a plan to allocate nearly $5 billion to build thousands of electric vehicle charging stations within five years. The European Commission announced the chip bill, which has attracted much attention from the outside world, and plans to increase the share of global chip production from the current 10% to 20%. Lattice core, TSMC, liandian, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and others have announced beautiful financial reports. Many semiconductor enterprises have high order visibility, and the lack of core in 2022 has not been effectively alleviated.
core view
[global stock market performance] global stock markets fell more or rose less last week. In terms of US stocks, the Dow, NASDAQ and S & P fell 1.5%, 1.6% and 1.8% respectively. The market is mainly concerned about US inflation and the judgment of the Fed's interest rate hike, the situation in Ukraine, the global epidemic and vaccination. In terms of US inflation and the Fed's judgment on raising interest rates, US CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year and 0.6% month on month in January. Due to the high inflation data, the market expects the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp in March to rise to nearly 80%. Brad advocated a cumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points before July this year and a 50bp interest rate increase in March. In terms of the situation in Ukraine, the situation in Ukraine suffered twists and turns last week. On February 12, the United States closed its embassy in Ukraine. On the same day, "Pubai" held an hour of emergency telephone conference. On February 13, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK said that Kiev "may" give up joining NATO to avoid war. On February 14, the G7 finance minister warned Russia to impose economic and financial sanctions to prevent it from "invading Ukraine". Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia could consider continuing negotiations with the United States and NATO, easing global tensions. in terms of global epidemic and vaccination, when the number of deaths in the United States exceeded 900000, the Biden government was actively preparing to withdraw from the "comprehensive pandemic phase" of covid-19 virus. On February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the import registration of nevitavir tablets / ritonavir tablets combination packaging (paxlovid) of Pfizer in the form of emergency review and approval. At present, the proportion of vaccination in European and American countries is rising rapidly. The countries with a high number of new cases last week are Germany, Russia, the United States, Brazil and so on. In terms of industry performance, materials and daily consumption sectors performed relatively well, while medical care and information technology sectors performed relatively poorly. In terms of change stocks, among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that rose sharply in the past week, there are more optional consumption and information technology. Among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that led the decline in the past week, there are more medical care and information technology.
[global industry trend] trend 1: charging pile. The Biden administration announced a plan to allocate nearly $5 billion over five years to build thousands of electric vehicle charging stations. With the construction of charging stations, the proportion of new energy vehicles and charging piles will gradually become reasonable. trend 2: semiconductors. the European Commission announced the chip act, which has attracted much attention from the outside world, and plans to increase the share of global chip production from the current 10% to 20%. Lattice core, TSMC, liandian, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and others have announced beautiful financial reports. Many semiconductor enterprises have high order visibility, and the lack of core in 2022 has not been effectively alleviated.
[important information] Qualcomm: Qualcomm announced that it would open an extended Reality Laboratory in Europe to focus on XR technology and product research and development in the future, covering advanced hand tracking and gesture control, 3D mapping and slam / positioning services, multi-user experience and image recognition. AMD: amd officially announced that it has obtained all necessary approvals for the acquisition of Xilinx and is expected to complete the acquisition on or around February 14, 2022. Amazon: a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amazon obtained a warrant to acquire 39.6 million shares of velodyne, a lidar company.
[industry trend concerns and suggestions] from a medium - and long-term perspective, we currently propose to pay attention to the rise of the whole industrial chain of carbon neutralization under global attention (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy, etc.), the increase in the penetration rate of electric intelligent vehicles under the general trend of electrification and intelligence, as well as the industrial trends of metauniverse, intelligent manufacturing, cloud computing, self-control and so on.
[risk tip] the individual stocks mentioned in this report only indicate that they are related to relevant topics and do not constitute individual stock investment suggestions.
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core concerns and investment suggestions
Last week, the industry indexes with higher A-share gains were: smart IC card, mobile payment, home textile, etc.
last week and this week, the industrial trend of overseas markets worthy of attention is:
1. Charging pile
On February 10, the Biden administration announced a plan to allocate nearly $5 billion over five years to build thousands of electric vehicle charging stations. Biden hopes that by 2030, 50% of all new cars sold will be electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, and 500000 electric vehicle charging stations will be added.
On the whole, electric vehicles have entered the outbreak period, and the construction of charging piles is obviously backward. With the construction of charging stations, the proportion of new energy vehicles and charging piles will gradually become reasonable.
2. Semiconductor
On February 8, the European Commission announced the chip act, which has attracted much attention from the outside world, and plans to significantly increase the EU's share of global chip production. According to the act, the EU will invest more than 43 billion euros in public and private funds to support chip production, pilot projects and start-ups. By 2030, the EU plans to increase its share of global chip production from the current 10% to 20%.
lattice core, TSMC, liandian, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and others have announced beautiful financial reports. on February 8, lattice core, the world's third-largest foundry, announced that its revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 74% to $1.85 billion from $1.09 billion in the same period last year, and its net profit in the quarter was $43 million.
On February 10, TSMC and UMC announced their results in January, and the revenue of that month reached a record high. Among them, TSMC's revenue in January reached NT $172.176 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%; Liandian achieved revenue of NT $20.473 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) in the fourth quarter of 2021, the net profit was $533.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 107.7%; Fourth quarter revenue of $1.58 billion, an increase of 11.6%.
Recently, the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries and regions have introduced bills to increase their support for chip manufacturing, especially in advanced technology. However, the lack of core caused by insufficient wafer manufacturing capacity is difficult to solve. Many enterprises have high order visibility, and the inventory level is difficult to meet the strong demand. In addition, global semiconductors are in the cycle of capacity expansion, and the demand for upstream equipment and materials is also relatively strong.
investment suggestions: from a medium - and long-term perspective, we currently propose to pay attention to the rise of the whole industrial chain of carbon neutralization under global attention (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy, etc.), the increase of the penetration rate of electric intelligent vehicles under the general trend of electrification and intelligence, as well as the industrial trends of meta universe, intelligent manufacturing, cloud computing, self-control and so on.
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global observation: overseas market tracking
1. Global asset performance
global stock markets fell more and rose less last week. In terms of US stocks, the Dow, NASDAQ and S & P fell 1.5%, 1.6% and 1.8% respectively. The market is mainly concerned about US inflation and the judgment of the Fed's interest rate hike, the situation in Ukraine, the global epidemic and vaccination. on February 10, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, the highest level since March 1982, and reached or exceeded 5% for nine consecutive months. In January, CPI increased by 0.6% month on month. Due to the high inflation data, the market expects the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp in March to rise to nearly 80%. Brad, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, whose monetary policy stance is hawkish in the Federal Reserve, said that economic data in recent months reflect that inflationary pressure in the United States is still increasing, which will damage low-income families and hit consumer confidence. Brad advocated raising interest rates by 100 basis points before July and 50bp in March In the early morning of February 17, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the interest rate meeting in January to pay attention to whether there is more discussion on interest rate hike, table contraction and other issues. In terms of the situation in Ukraine, the situation in Ukraine suffered twists and turns last week. On February 12, the United States closed its embassy in Ukraine. On the same day, Biden warned Putin at the one hour emergency telephone conference of "Pubai" that "if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, the United States and its allies will make a" decisive response and quickly impose serious consequences on Russia ". The Kremlin issued a statement saying that the U.S. warning of "Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine" has reached a "absurd" level, and the U.S. response to Russia's security proposal ignored Russia's main concerns. This change has increased investors' concerns about the situation in Ukraine and Russia, and the market risk appetite has decreased significantly. On February 13, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK said that Kiev "may" give up joining NATO to avoid war. On February 14, the G7 finance minister warned Russia to impose economic and financial sanctions to prevent it from "invading Ukraine". Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia could consider continuing negotiations with the United States and NATO, easing global tensions. in terms of global epidemic and vaccination, when the number of deaths in the United States exceeded 900000, the Biden government was actively preparing to withdraw from the "comprehensive pandemic phase" of covid-19 virus. On February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the import registration of nevitavir tablets / ritonavir tablets combination packaging (paxlovid) of Pfizer in the form of emergency review and approval. At present, the proportion of vaccination in European and American countries is rising rapidly. Among them, the proportion of the population fully vaccinated in Germany, France, Britain and the United States is 74.1%, 77.0%, 71.4% and 64.2% respectively. Countries with a high number of new cases last week were Germany, Russia, the United States and Brazil.
European stock market fell more and rose less. FTSE 100, France CAC40 and Germany DAX fell 0.6%, 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, and Italy index rose 0.3%. The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.6%. on February 10, the Bank of Japan announced that it would buy an unlimited number of government bonds at a fixed interest rate, that is, 10-year bonds at an interest rate of 0.25%.
last week, bulk commodities rose more or less, crude oil and precious metals rose, industrial metals rose more or less, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) fell more or less. The interest rate of us 10-year Treasury bonds rose 2bp to 1.98%.
In terms of crude oil, oil distribution and WTI crude oil rose by 3.4% and 3.3% respectively last week. At present, oil distribution and WTI crude oil rose to $96 and $93 / barrel respectively. The impact of cold weather in the United States, insufficient OPEC + supply and geopolitical risks in Ukraine are pushing up oil prices. Precious metals rose last week, gold and silver rose 2.8% and 3.4% respectively. The explosion of US inflation data stimulated investors' risk aversion and hedging sentiment, and Ukraine's geopolitical problems also increased investors' tension. As a defensive asset to hedge against high inflation, precious metal prices rose. industrial metals rose more and fell less, metal aluminum, metal copper and metal lead rose by 3.1%, 0.8% and 4.5% respectively, and metal nickel and metal zinc fell by 0.7% and 1.4% respectively. The reason for the rise in aluminum prices is the shortage of energy and electricity, the closure of smelters by the number one producer during the Winter Olympics and the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which are worrying about tight supply. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) fell more and rose less, rice, soybean and ice11 sugar fell by 2.7%, 0.7% and 2.0% respectively, and wheat rose by 4.1%. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose 6BP to 1.98%. The US dollar index rose 0.9% to 96, and the RMB depreciated 0.03% against the US dollar. The current central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar is 6.36.
2. Global stock market industry performance
last week, the global stock market fell more or rose less, the performance of materials and daily consumption sectors was relatively good, and the performance of medical care and information technology sectors was relatively poor.
Specifically, in terms of US stocks, in addition to the rise in materials, other sectors fell, including real estate, public utilities, health care and information technology. for European stocks , except for the rise in telecommunications services and energy, other sectors fell, including public utilities and optional consumption. in the UK stock market, materials and optional consumption sectors performed well, while information technology, energy, finance and industry sectors performed poorly. In terms of the Japanese stock market, the sectors of public utilities, energy and industrial services increased significantly, while the sectors of health care, telecommunications services and optional consumption decreased significantly.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, materials sector performed well, daily consumption and energy sector performed well, and medical care sector performed poorly. In terms of A shares, energy and telecommunications services sectors performed well, while medical care, industry and information technology sectors fell significantly.
3. A brief analysis of global strong stocks and changing stocks
Among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that rose sharply in the past week, there are more optional consumption and information technology. Among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that led the decline in the past week, there are more medical care and information technology.
A brief analysis of change shares
[hubspot] the company released its financial report on February 10. The earnings per share in the previous quarter was $0.58, higher than the market expected $0.53, an increase of 45% over the same period last year; The revenue in the last quarter was $369.3 million, higher than the market expectation of $357.5 million, an increase of 46% over the same period last year. The company expects revenue of $381 million to $383 million in the first quarter of this year and earnings per share of $0.46 to $0.48, higher than market expectations of $377.5 million and $0.46. Hubspot rose 14.2% last week.
[micron technology] us western data and Japan's Kaixia (former Toshiba storage) announced that some businesses of the two factories jointly operated by the two companies in Japan were affected by production line pollution, which means that the supply of flash chips of the two companies may suffer a great loss. Meguiar technology, the main manufacturer of flash memory semiconductors, rose 11.1% last week after western data announced the shutdown of Japanese factories.
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important information express
1. Industrial policy and news
(1) the U.S. government plans to allocate $5 billion to build large-scale charging piles (☆☆ ☆)
On February 10, the Biden administration announced a plan to allocate nearly $5 billion over five years to build thousands of electric vehicle charging stations. Last November, Congress approved government funding to states as part of a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The US government will allocate US $615 million in 2022, but states must first submit fund use plans and obtain federal approval. Pete Buttigieg, US Secretary of transportation, said: "we will not order states to do so, but we do need to ensure that basic standards are met." Butijig explained that the United States faces different electric vehicle network challenges in rural and urban areas, so specific fund use plans in different regions "must be customized, which is why we let States put forward plans to us, not the other way round." Biden hopes that by 2030, 50% of all new cars sold will be electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, and 500000 electric vehicle charging stations will be added. However, he is not in favor of phasing out the sales of new gasoline powered vehicles by 2030. The Biden administration said in its guidance on Thursday that states should give priority to investing along Interstate highways.
(2) French President macron: we will speed up the construction of renewable energy and build 50 offshore wind farms by 2050 (☆☆☆)
On October, the French president announced that the construction of renewable energy plants will be restarted on a large scale, and the French president will launch new energy projects in the field of renewable energy. Macron said during his inspection at the Belfort nuclear turbine production base in the northeastern city of France on the same day that France needs to immediately implement "structural" energy production projects in order to fulfill its commitment to addressing climate change, reduce its dependence on the international energy market and develop its own industry. According to the plan announced by macron, by 2050, France will build 50 offshore wind farms to achieve the goal of 40 GW of wind power capacity; Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) the installed capacity of power generation will increase tenfold to more than 100 GW. Macron said that France will continue to invest in the development of renewable thermal energy such as hydropower stations and biogas utilization. According to the "France 2030" plan, the country will invest 1 billion euros in renewable energy development. France's Le Monde reported that among EU countries, France is at a backward level in the field of renewable energy. In 2020, renewable energy accounts for 19.1% of France's total energy consumption, which is lower than the 23% target proposed by the EU. France is the only EU country that fails to meet the standard.
(3) the EU announced the chip act, which plans to significantly increase the share of chip production (☆☆ ☆)
On February 8, the European Commission announced the chip act, which has attracted much attention from the outside world, and plans to significantly increase the EU's share of global chip production. According to the act, the EU will invest more than 43 billion euros in public and private funds to support chip production, pilot projects and start-ups. Among them, 11 billion euros will be used to strengthen existing research, development and innovation to ensure the deployment of advanced semiconductor tools and pilot production lines for prototype design and testing. By 2030, the EU plans to increase its share of global chip production from the current 10% to 20%. European Commission President von delaine said on the same day that the chip act can change the EU's global competitiveness. In the short term, it will enable the EU to predict and avoid supply chain disruption, so as to improve its resilience to future crises; In the medium term, it will help the EU become a leader in the chip strategic market. In addition, the EU is also adjusting state aid regulations to allow huge subsidies to cutting-edge factories. In addition, the European Commission also recommended that its member states establish a "toolbox" to ensure the supply of chips in case of emergency.
(4) Qualcomm XR lab landing in Europe should strengthen the status of "meta universe ticket" (☆☆)
On February 11, Qualcomm announced that it would open an extended Reality Laboratory in Europe. "Qualcomm's technology will open a new era of space computing and further strengthen its position as a 'meta universe ticket' by increasing its investment in XR technology in Europe." According to the official introduction, the laboratory will be set up in six cities in Europe, and the number will continue to increase. In the future, it will focus on XR technology and product research and development, covering advanced hand tracking and gesture control, 3D mapping and slam / positioning services, multi-user experience and image recognition. Qualcomm's goal is to strengthen its Xiaolong spaces XR developer platform, so as to help manufacturers design lightweight and fashionable headwear glasses and apply products to daily consumption, factory production, enterprise operation, education and health care. Enrico Salvatori, senior vice president of Qualcomm Europe, said: "the opportunities for XR are huge. Coupled with the rich R & D resources and leading position in Europe, we believe that this laboratory can make a great contribution to the popularization and development of XR technology in the world."
The supplier of (5) revealed that GM will increase the original planned output of electric vehicles by more than six times this year (☆☆)
According to GM's parts suppliers, GM plans to increase its electric vehicle production to more than six times the original plan this year.
GM CEO Mary Barra told investors last week that the company plans to accelerate the production of electric vehicles and aims to deliver 400000 electric vehicles in North America between 2022 and 2023, but she did not give specific details of how fast production will grow. According to the data shared by suppliers, GM plans to increase the total output of its electric pickup trucks, Cadillac electric SUVs and other electric vehicles to 46000 this year, compared with 7000 previously planned. The supplier of electric pickup Hummer EV was informed that GM plans to produce 21000 such vehicles at its factory zero in Detroit, far higher than the original planned 3800. In addition, the supplier of Cadillac lyriq electric SUV was informed that GM plans to produce 25000 such vehicles this year, much higher than the original planned 3200. Barra said last week that lyriq's demand was strong. "As we announced earlier, we have increased our investment in batteries and assembly capacity. By the end of 2025, we will have more than 1 million electric vehicles in North America," GM said in a statement on February 8
(6) lattice core released beautiful financial reports, and TSMC and liandian achieved a new high performance in January (☆☆)
On February 8, lattice core, the world's third-largest foundry, announced its fourth quarter earnings last year. The company announced that its fourth quarter revenue increased 74% year-on-year to $1.85 billion from $1.09 billion in the same period last year. The quarterly net profit was $43 million, or $0.8 earnings per share (EPS), compared with a loss of $524 million in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share excluding stock based compensation expenses and other items was $0.18, compared with a loss of $1.05 per share in the same period last year. On February 10, TSMC and UMC announced their results in January, and the revenue of that month reached a record high. Among them, TSMC's revenue in January exceeded NT $170 billion for the first time, reaching NT $172.176 billion, an increase of 10.8% month on month and 35.8% year-on-year; Liandian achieved a revenue of NT $20.473 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%, hitting a new high for the fourth consecutive month. The company's production line was fully loaded, and the order visibility reached Q4. Previously, the industry had expected that the new production capacity of the mature wafer foundry process could be opened in 2023, and the "lack of core" could be alleviated at that time. However, according to Taiwan's electronic times on the 10th, this situation may be advanced to the second half of this year, and the industry may face the crisis of overcapacity in 2023.
(7) new energy vehicles ushered in a general rise in prices, and the passenger Association said that the slight rise in prices would not affect the increase in sales (☆☆)
On February 14, the Federation of passenger cars released data showing that in January 2022, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 347000, a year-on-year increase of 132%. Although there was a 27% month on month decline, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, said, "due to the decline of subsidies in December (2021), high growth and high rise have been formed. Over the years, the retail volume in January decreased significantly compared with that in December, and the 27% month on month decline is still a good performance." In fact, since the decline of the new energy subsidy policy at the end of last year, many car companies have announced price increases. On February 12, another car company joined the price increase team. On the same day, SAIC Roewe announced that due to the global chip shortage and the decline of the national new energy subsidy policy and other factors, the company had to decide to raise the official guidance prices of many new energy models from March 1, 2022 to deal with the changes in the new energy market. At present, SAIC Roewe has launched 8 new energy models, including the new Roewe rx5 Emax, Roewe ei5 and Roewe clever.
(8) Tesla was still the champion of global electric vehicle sales last year. SAIC, Volkswagen, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Hyundai were shortlisted in the top five (☆)
According to the report on the sales performance and market trends of electric vehicles in 2021 released by the Korean Automobile Research Institute on the 7th, the sales volume of the global pure electric vehicle market last year was 4.717728 million, a year-on-year increase of 112%, accounting for 5.8% of the overall automobile market share and a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Tesla is still the top seller of electric vehicles in the world, with a total of 921642 vehicles sold last year; Followed by China Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (610023 vehicles), Germany Volkswagen (436669 vehicles), Byd Company Limited(002594) (335257 vehicles); Hyundai last year sold a total of 240500 electric vehicles worldwide, ranking fifth. Although Tesla remains the champion, its advantage is gradually weakening. While the overall sales volume of electric vehicle market increased by 112%, Tesla's sales volume increased by 86% year-on-year, while Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) and Byd Company Limited(002594) showed strong growth momentum of 160% and 173% year-on-year respectively, and Volkswagen and Hyundai also increased by 98% and 65% year-on-year.
(9) western data and Kaixia: two flash memory plants shut down due to material pollution (☆)
On February 10, Western Digital and Japan's Kaixia (former Toshiba storage) announced that some businesses of the two factories jointly operated by the two companies in Japan were affected by production line pollution, which means that the supply of flash memory chips of the two companies may suffer a great loss. Western Digital and Kaixia are one of the world's largest flash chip manufacturers. The two companies said that since late January, due to the pollution of the materials used in the production of flash memory chips, the production of the two factories listed and operated jointly by the two companies in Japan's four day city and North has been affected, and the two companies will resume normal operation as soon as possible. Judging from the announcements of the two companies, at present, they have not determined the cause and time of the accident, nor do they know how serious the specific damage will be. Western data said it expected its supply to be reduced by "at least 6.5 exabytes", while Kaixia's announcement did not disclose specific loss data. Kaixia spokesman said that the company expected that the delivery of its traditional 2D NAND flash memory would not be affected, but some production of 3D flash memory products with higher profit margin would be affected. The company will continue to ship from inventory, but will reduce shipments in the short term.
(10) Qualcomm technologies will become a system solution provider for Ferrari sports cars (☆)
On February 8, Qualcomm technologies and Ferrari announced that they had reached a strategic technical cooperation to help accelerate Ferrari's digital transformation. Qualcomm technologies will become a system solution provider for Ferrari's upcoming Ferrari sports car, as well as a senior partner of Ferrari Formula 1 team and Ferrari E-sports team. Ferrari will work with Qualcomm technologies to bring the latest automotive technology to Ferrari sports cars using snapdragon digital chassis. Xiaolong digital chassis is composed of a complete set of open and scalable cloud connection platform, which provides support for the next generation of vehicles, including on-board networking and connection technology, digital cockpit and advanced driving assistance system functions. It uses a unified architecture to bring higher security and immersive digital experience, and supports the function upgrading of vehicles in their whole life cycle. Based on this cooperation, Qualcomm technologies and its partners will also work with Ferrari to design, develop and integrate Ferrari's digital cockpit.
2. Global emerging industry trends and tracking of key companies
