Last week, it just rose by 6%, but on Monday, it was "black door". What happened to bank stocks?
On February 14, the main A-share indexes fell across the board, with most industry sectors falling sharply, led by finance and real estate. Among them, China stock market news fell 13.3%, which led to a collective slump, and all banking and insurance stocks went green. In contrast, the undervalued bank stocks that had continued to callback have continued to rise against the market this year, becoming the brightest "dark horse" sector. Just last week, the newly released credit and social finance data both exceeded expectations, which was regarded as an important signal of the initial results of steady economic growth.
For the contrast performance of bank stocks on Monday, institutional people believe that the probability is the phased realization of steady growth. On the one hand, social finance exceeded expectations, which reduced the expectation of interest rate cut. On the other hand, there are some hidden worries behind the data, including the expansion of M2 and M1 scissors. Previously, on February 11, the fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report of 2021 issued by the central bank stressed to strengthen cross cycle regulation and give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools. At the same time, the expression of "focusing on me" has changed. For real estate, it once again emphasized "no speculation in real estate" and "not taking real estate as a means of short-term stimulating the economy". However, most institutional people believe that the current direction of marginal easing of real estate policy will not change, wide money is transmitting to wide credit, interest rate cut and overweight are still possible, and bank stocks will continue to benefit from both credit demand and asset quality.
banking stocks suffered a "black door" on Monday
In the morning trading on February 14, the Shanghai index opened low and fluctuated all the way down, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index rose and fell. As of the closing, the three major stock indexes fell 0.98%, 0.77% and 0.52% respectively, and more than 2000 stocks in the two cities fell. From the perspective of the industry sector, finance and real estate are the main force of the decline, banks, insurance and securities companies are all green, and the banking sector as a whole fell by more than 2%. Among them, Bank of Lanzhou fell 8.76%, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) fell more than 5%, and several stocks such as Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) fell more than 3%.
It is worth noting that most of the banks with the highest intraday decline were banks with large increase in the early stage. Since this year, with the bank's performance express exceeding expectations and the superposition of wide credit, which is good for the quality of bank assets and credit demand, institutions are generally optimistic about bank stocks with the advantages of undervaluation and risk aversion. In the market correction, bank stocks bucked the market and walked out of the independent market, with an overall rise of 8% (the Shanghai index fell 4.86% in the same period), of which they rose more than 6% last week alone.
As of last Friday, the newly listed bank of Lanzhou in January had increased by 33.27% in the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) all increased by more than 20%, and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) all increased by more than 10%, and only Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) , Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) , Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601860) three banks fell.
However, after "Black Monday", the gains of 42 bank stocks in A-Shares fell. "The amount of social financing exceeds expectations, and the policy on the equivalence of interest rate reduction is weak. The market may expect that there will be no interest rate reduction in the follow-up probability." A private placement person told reporters that the current performance rate of bank stocks is the phased realization of "steady growth". On February 10, the central bank released the financial and social finance data of January this year. The scale of credit and social finance both exceeded expectations and reached a record high in a single month. Among them, the increment of social financing scale was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Especially in terms of medium and long-term loans, the decline of medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by about 200 billion yuan year-on-year in the first five months, and turned to an increase of 60 billion yuan year-on-year.
On February 11, the central bank's monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2021 re mentioned "no flood irrigation". At the same time, it adjusted "do a good job in cross cycle regulation" to "strengthen cross cycle regulation". The proposal of "focus on me" was deleted from the main tone, but only mentioned in the exchange rate part that "focus on me and enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate based on market supply and demand", This is also interpreted by some market participants as the expectation of monetary easing will change. However, some analysts pointed out that the central bank may pay more attention to the impact of external policy in the next stage, but the probability of continued easing of China's monetary policy before the Fed's substantive tightening is still high, especially in the policy window period in the first quarter, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates can still be expected. The growth rate of superimposed social finance stock has rebounded for three consecutive months, indicating that the steady growth policy is constantly making efforts and the credit is on the way.
From the institutional point of view, the current seller's institutions have not changed their attitude of continuing to be optimistic about bank stocks. It is generally believed that bank stocks will continue to benefit under the wide credit cycle. Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) bank analyst Shen Juan said that high-quality bank stocks in the three rounds of wide currency and credit cycle since 2016 have made outstanding performance. At present, they are in the transmission period from wide currency to wide credit. The policy force is ahead, and the force of infrastructure investment is expected to continue. Wide credit + basic orientation + capital style switching are firmly optimistic about the spring market of the banking sector.
Zhang Yiwei, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, also said in the latest research report that the steady growth policy has helped to form a broad credit pattern. The forward force of the policy is expected to further stimulate the growth of social finance and medium and long-term loan demand of enterprises, which is conducive to the recovery of the prosperity of the banking industry. The first quarter is still an important opportunity for the valuation and repair of bank stocks.
what are the concerns of the market?
It was not just bank stocks that fell sharply. In addition to the whole large financial sector, the real estate sector also fell by more than 2%, Dongguan Winnerway Industry Zone Ltd(000573) directly closed the limit in the afternoon, Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) , Macrolink Culturaltainment Development Co.Ltd(000620) all fell by more than 9% at the close, Rongan Property Co.Ltd(000517) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Calxon Group Co.Ltd(000918) , Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) generally fell by more than 5%. In the Hong Kong stock market, rongchuang China, China Olympic Park and other domestic real estate stocks also led the decline. Zhengrong real estate, deeply trapped in negative rumors, fell more than 15% again after a 66% fall on Friday.
Some analysts pointed out that the current situation is grim. Although the market's loose expectations for real estate risk resolution and credit support policies are rising, the expectation for the prosperity of the industry is still weak, and a slight disturbance will cause huge fluctuations. In the report on the implementation of monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021, the central bank re mentioned "no speculation in real estate", and again stressed that "we should not take real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term" and "we should implement the prudent management system of real estate finance", which aroused discussion and speculation in the industry. Some analysts believe that although the relevant formulation is lower than market expectations, the formulation of "better meeting the reasonable housing needs of home buyers" shows that the direction of marginal easing will continue in the future.
The credit situation in the real estate sector is also one of the hidden worries of the current market for the banking sector.
According to the latest data of the central bank, the short-term loans of residents pointing to the consumption boom continued to be weak (an increase of 100.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 227.2 billion yuan), while the medium and long-term loans of residents representing mortgage loans (an increase of 742.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 202.4 billion yuan) increased less year-on-year for two consecutive months, reflecting the weak real estate sales to a certain extent. However, some brokerage analysts pointed out that this also means that the real estate regulation needs to be further relaxed, which is both a hidden worry and a hope.
However, according to the analysis of Guosheng securities, the market may have another major concern about the record credit and social finance data - the m2-m1 scissors gap widened again after two months, which often means that the economic activity is not enough. According to the data, M1 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in January, increased by about 2% year-on-year excluding the influence of wrong timing of the Spring Festival, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year and 0.8 percentage points month on month, rebounding for two consecutive months. The scissors gap between the two has returned to or even exceeded the level of last February.
In addition, although the medium and long-term loans (newly increased by 2.1 trillion yuan) of enterprises increased by 60 billion yuan year-on-year for the first time in six months, the proportion of short-term loans and bill financing is still high, and the short-term loans (newly increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 434.5 billion yuan year-on-year) increased significantly in January. It is considered that the general cash flow pressure of enterprises is high, and there is a possibility of impulse. "Many investors doubt whether the current 'wide money' can bring 'wide credit'. Our answer is yes: this round of monetary easing will also bring credit expansion." Yu Zongliang, chief equity research officer and senior fund manager of Xingshi investment, also pointed out in the latest analysis that considering the different sensitivities of different components of social finance to interest rates, poor credit structure is a typical feature in the early stage of wide credit, but the volume of medium and long-term loans is only a matter of time. Guosheng securities also analyzed that the recovery of medium and long-term loans has shown the improvement of infrastructure financing demand. Based on the general environment of stable growth and infrastructure expansion, it is expected to continue to increase in the next few months.
Zhang Yiwei also said that the corrective policies such as the exclusion of affordable rental housing loans from concentration management are gradually implemented, which is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on the growth of housing loans, and banks will benefit from both credit demand and asset quality.
