Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. Affected by the decline of the peripheral stock market, the three major stock indexes opened low in the morning, and then the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index quickly rose and turned red, but the rebound was limited and fell into adjustment again, while the Shanghai index was more weak, showing a pulse downward pattern, and finally the three major stock indexes closed down.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the stock index continued to step back on Monday. Although the decline of the index increased compared with last Friday, individual stocks are not a general decline trend, mainly due to the obvious drag of heavyweight stocks held together by institutions. Gem means that after continuous adjustment, the short-term rebound is imminent, market style is expected to change to growth themes, and it is not suitable to be blindly bearish. Investors should not step on the wrong rhythm and wait for the rebound in the near future .
Guosheng Securities said that the two cities continued to adjust, and the Shanghai index made a step back confirmation of last week’s rebound, which did not rule out the possibility of a second bottom; Gem refers to the cross star closing, which has formed a serious oversold at the daily level and also reached the vicinity of the weekly level support. The Shenzhen Component Index also deviates from expectations in the short term, and there is a rebound demand. after the emotional catharsis, the market may gradually usher in a restorative rebound . It is suggested to pay attention to position control before the formation of trading opportunities on the right. It is not suitable to chase up and kill down under the pattern of weak shocks. At the same time, it is also necessary to prevent the uncertainty of the progress of interest rate hike in the United States.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that on Monday, the stock index shrank, and the decline of securities, banks and other financial sectors dragged down the index, with a slight net outflow of funds from the north. However, China’s monetary policy is still expected to be further relaxed in the first quarter, and the liquidity release may continue to increase, with the gradual stabilization of market confidence, the market is expected to stabilize in shock, Focus on energy release and sector rotation .
In terms of the future market, YueKai securities mentioned that stands at the moment, and the dark time of rapid adjustment has passed. After the subsequent shock and bottom grinding, there may be a rebound at any time, so it is difficult to participate in the short-term market. But in the long run, it is still the main focus of investment layout.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) said that under the strong demand for oversold rebound in the market, each index does not have the short momentum of continuous decline ; Maintain the judgment of the end of the adjustment of the A-share market stage and the judgment that the area near the 3400 point of the Shanghai composite index is a low-risk area; Judging that the Shanghai Composite Index falls back to the bottom again in the short term is the process of building the bottom and confirming the bottom.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that at present, some institutions are still changing positions and shares, and the market will still face certain fluctuations in the future. It is suggested that investors should watch more and move less, and continue to pay attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the short-term slight correction of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
In the macro aspect, Huaxin securities mentioned that the credit data in January was very bright. The policy force is obvious, and the expectation of the market from stable credit to wide credit is implemented. for a shares, each round of wide credit cycle will probably usher in valuation expansion. Therefore, from the perspective of liquidity, it supports A-Shares to gradually improve . Externally, however, the US CPI hit a new high, and the market is worried about the Fed’s interest rate hike in March, thus continuing to depress the risk appetite in the market.
In terms of operational strategy, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that from the perspective of policy and expectation, the sectors damaged by the epidemic, new themes and state-owned enterprises will be an important direction this year, which has shown some performance in the past two months. At the same time, the banking and oil industries not only have the characteristics of undervaluation, but also benefit from policy and inflation catalysis. The performance growth is highly deterministic. At the same time, they are not sensitive to changes in U.S. interest rate policy, which will gradually become an important choice.
Bohai Securities also pointed out that due to space problems, it is not suitable to pursue the rise of for the “stable growth” sector with large short-term cumulative increase. However, considering that the social and financial structure still needs to be optimized and the stable growth policy will still work, so the stable growth sector can still play a game if there is a correction; In addition, in the short term, we can also focus on the rebound opportunities of household goods and household appliances under the correction of real estate policies, as well as thematic opportunities such as traditional Chinese medicine and digital economy.
In addition, Caixin Securities believes that is expected to achieve positive returns in the A-share market in 2022, but the performance of the index may be lower than that in 2021. It is optimistic about the following four sectors in turn: (1) the sector with booming production and marketing . In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer.
(2) new energy and other track stocks . It is expected that the differentiation of new energy track stocks will intensify, the stocks with confirmed performance will still grow high, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected.
(3) downstream consumption sector . In November, China’s PPI rose 12.9% year-on-year and CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year. The scissors gap is at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will continue from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of next year. We can pay attention to food, beverage and household appliances.
(4) epidemic damaged sector . At present, the epidemic has spread to India, Africa and other places with the weakest vaccination, which may mean that the global anti epidemic process has come to an end. In 2022, with the control of the global epidemic, there is a momentum for valuation and repair in the epidemic damaged sector, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airport, tourism, hotel, cinema, etc.
