Macro
The judgment on the economic situation and policy tone in the fourth quarter goods policy report basically continues the expression of the central economic work conference and the press conference on financial statistics in 2021. The performance of financing data is the main concern index of current monetary policy. Looking ahead, if the follow-up credit shows signs of weakness, it is not ruled out that the people’s Bank of China still has the operation of interest rate reduction. At the same time, the net financing of government bonds may reach 7.6 trillion this year, and the issuance rhythm will also be ahead of schedule, which will have a certain impact on the liquidity of the inter-bank market. The people’s Bank of China is expected to reduce the reserve requirement in time again to maintain the stability of inter-bank liquidity.
Tactics
Social finance in January significantly exceeded expectations, and the unexpected social finance data may be an important catalyst for the rise of the market. 1. Exceeding expectations, social finance is expected to dispel the market’s concerns about the economic and policy effects; 2. At present, the position adjustment of institutional funds may be gradually coming to an end, and the disturbance in the future will weaken; 3. The tightening of the Federal Reserve and the rise of US bonds are disturbed in the short term, but the medium term is not a new contradiction between a shares. It is suggested to focus on steady growth and consumption.
Metalworking
This week, the market performance was significantly differentiated. The gem index continued to fall sharply, while the short sentiment of large cap stocks weakened. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at the “safety” level of the valuation quantile. According to the first-class industry classification of CITIC, power and public utilities, automobiles, commerce and retail, consumer services, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computers and media are at the “dangerous” level of the valuation quantile. From the perspective of capital in the north, the allocation of banks, non bank finance and non-ferrous metals; Trading positions are increased in non bank finance, banking and non-ferrous metals.
Metalworking — quantification
This week, the liquidity factor and profit factor achieved positive returns (1.01% and 0.86%), and the leverage factor achieved positive returns of 0.70%. Beta factor and momentum factor achieved significant negative returns (- 0.66% and – 1.14%). In terms of single factor performance, valuation factors perform well in all stock pools, and the market value effect is significant. Reversal factors performed poorly in all stock pools.
