Computer: the industry represented by financial Xinchuang continues to accelerate, and application and basic software and hardware manufacturers will benefit. It is recommended to Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) , Primeton Information Technologies Inc(688118) , Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) . After nearly three years of development, Huawei Kunpeng ecology has become more mature, focusing on recommending Kunpeng industrial chain Digital China Group Co.Ltd(000034) , Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) , Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) , Talkweb Information System Co.Ltd(002261) .
Real estate: at present, the valuation center of the industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. Under the background of stable growth, we believe that the release of policies will be strengthened step by step. It does not rule out that non hot cities will break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies, Continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development.
Mechanical and military industry: the lithium battery equipment sector ushered in a large adjustment this week, mainly due to the adjustment of the whole new energy sector, which is not obviously bad. Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) fell sharply after the Spring Festival, but the company’s fundamentals and orders did not deteriorate significantly. In the next two years, the production expansion of mainstream battery manufacturers in China and abroad will exceed 2000gwh, and the lithium battery equipment sector will still maintain a high boom.
Medicine: the pharmaceutical and biological industry index has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year. We believe that the fundamentals of the pharmaceutical industry have not changed significantly, and the total demand for medicine still shows an upward trend. At present, the valuation has been quite attractive, which is far lower than the median fluctuation of the ten year cycle and close to the extremely low value of historical fluctuation. Based on the above judgment, we judge that the period of overall sharp decline in the pharmaceutical industry has basically ended, but we do not rule out that some industries such as CXO industry may still be affected by overseas factors and continue to be weak in the short term.
Electronics: the scale of China’s integrated circuit industry has grown steadily, and the gap between China and the United States has narrowed. From 2012 to 2021, the import and export volume and amount of China’s integrated circuits showed stable growth. At present, the chips independently manufactured in China are mainly low-end chips such as simulation and separation, while high-end chips such as logic and storage are mainly imported. From 2012 to 2021, the ASP price difference between China’s IC import and export decreased significantly. The narrowing of ASP price difference shows that the domestic level of medium and high-end chips has improved.
Home appliances: we believe that the development of China’s home appliance industry will show a high-end and scene development trend. Among them, Casati brand has built a moat for the company, and has maintained a leading share in the high-end white power market with richer SKUs and expanding price band. In terms of scenario, in 2020, Haier launched the world’s first scenario brand “three winged bird”, which aims to provide users with full scenario solutions for Smart Life in the whole house. With high-quality and efficient home decoration delivery, Sanyi bird continuously promotes the upgrading of user experience, drives the sales of complete sets of products, and plays an obvious role in promoting the company’s customer unit price.
Automobile: 1. According to the performance forecast in 2021, the chassis and cockpit parts companies performed well. We believe that the chassis by wire intelligent and cockpit intelligent logic will continue to be deduced; 2. In January, the overall sales situation of the passenger car market was stable, and the inventory depth rebounded month on month for four consecutive months. We are optimistic that the wholesale and retail of the car market will recover synchronously after the inventory depth recovers.
Media industry: the stimulation of the concept of meta universe to social innovation is transitioning from pilot level projects to prototype level projects, catering to the dissatisfaction of young people with traditional social application functions and the freshness of trendy things. Social networking is the focus of the Internet giant with traffic in hand to attack the meta universe. There are also breakthrough opportunities for vertical needs such as acquaintance social networking, game social networking and drying social networking.
Light industrial textile clothing: from the perspective of new houses, the delivery of rough houses in China is still the mainstream, and we believe that the increase of hardcover penetration may still squeeze China’s C-end channels. In the short term, the increase rate of hardcover penetration may be slowed down by factors such as the pressure of real estate sales and the exposure of credit risk of real estate enterprises and the reduction of willingness of furniture enterprises to undertake hardcover projects. In the long run, due to the low matching rate of finished furniture and the gradual dominance of second-hand housing in real estate transactions, the squeeze on the C-end channel of furniture is still limited. From the perspective of stock housing, at present, the sales of second-hand housing in China’s first tier cities has become the leading factor in real estate transactions, and the demand for furniture from second-hand housing has gradually increased. At the same time, according to our calculation, it is expected that by 2030, the proportion of the renovation demand of stock houses in the overall household consumption demand is expected to exceed 50%. According to the relevant research of airy consulting, the consumption motivation of household decoration of stock houses in China has gradually emerged. At the same time, “renting houses also needs decoration” or provide new demand increment for furniture consumption. Therefore, we believe that the potential market for furniture consumption corresponding to second-hand housing and stock housing is broad, and China’s furniture consumption demand is resilient. It is recommended to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) .
Non ferrous metals: according to the social financing data released in January this week, the total scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan and RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan. Both monthly data reached a record high. At the same time, infrastructure financing such as urban investment bonds and special bonds increased significantly, which is conducive to the improvement of the attention of the industrial metal sector. At the same time, under the background of “steady growth” this year, the demand for industrial metals is expected to improve marginally. After the Spring Festival holiday, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. This week, battery grade lithium carbonate rose 4% to close at 390000 yuan / ton; Industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 5.70% to close at 371000 yuan / ton. Throughout the year, the capacity increment of lithium carbonate outside China is mainly released in the second half of the year, and the tight supply pattern in the first half of the year is expected to be maintained. This week, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continued to be tense, and the market risk aversion increased. This week, spot gold in London rose 2.82% to close at US $1858.44 / ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.59% to close at 96.03; COMEX gold rose 2.92% to US $1842.10 per ounce this week, while Comex Silver Rose 5.01% to US $23.37 per ounce. This week, the US CPI rose 7.5% without quarterly adjustment in January, a 40 year high, exceeding market expectations. We believe that the continued high inflation data in the United States intensifies the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the gold price may remain high and volatile.
Environmental protection: in the context of steady growth, infrastructure investment is an important way, and environmental infrastructure investment will also become an important field of steady growth. Environmental protection enterprises in the fields of sewage treatment, domestic waste treatment, solid and hazardous waste treatment and recycling will usher in more business opportunities. At the same time, the improvement of the price charging system in the field of environmental protection is expected to further improve the profitability of environmental protection enterprises. We maintain a “optimistic” investment rating for the industry and suggest focusing on Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) , Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) and other companies.
Building materials: Social Finance exceeded expectations and steady growth was further clarified. At present, the cement sector is the best choice under the expectation of stable growth. Before and after the Spring Festival, all enterprises implement peak production or kiln shutdown for maintenance. The clinker inventory is moderate, and the cement clinker price rebounded slightly at the opening of the market. Cement stocks have clear investment opportunities in spring and pay close attention to high prices α Subject matter. From the performance of cement shares before and after the Spring Festival in previous years, the festival investment opportunities are relatively clear, and the cement sector achieved good returns from January to February in most years. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain.
