Financial data: in January, the increase of credit and social finance reached a new high, and the signal of stabilizing the economy was obvious, but the financing structure still needs to be further optimized. Stimulated by the relaxation of policies such as reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, the financing demand of the real economy has rebounded, and the new credit and social finance have reached a record high, partially alleviating the market’s concern about the continuous decline of economic growth. The credit increment is high, but the structure is still unreasonable. The credit increment is mainly contributed by enterprise short-term loans and bill financing. The “scissors gap” between M2 and M1 widened significantly, and the growth rate of M1 fell sharply to negative, indicating that the real financing demand is still weak and the economic probability has bottomed out. Considering the decline of China’s economic growth, the continuous release of tightening signals from foreign central banks and the re mention of “no flood irrigation” in the central bank’s monetary policy report in the fourth quarter, there are doubts about the further substantial easing of the policy. In the short term or into the wait-and-see period, the possibility of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates is reduced.
Capital analysis: this week, the central bank made a large net withdrawal from the open market, and the capital price after the festival was stable as a whole; Pay attention to the cross tax period support of the central bank next week after the large amount is withdrawn. This week, the central bank conducted a total of 100 billion yuan of reverse repo in the open market. A total of 900 billion yuan of reverse repo expired in the open market of the central bank this week, and a net return of 800 billion yuan in the open market of the central bank this week. After the festival, the overall capital price was stable. Next week’s 7d capital starts to cross the tax period. Although the capital level is generally stable this week, it is still possible to fluctuate under the impact of tax payment. Pay attention to the support of the central bank next week. The monetary policy implementation report in the fourth quarter has limited changes in the caliber of monetary policy in the next stage, but the financial data show that wide credit is reflected, which may have an impact on the price of funds.
Interest rate debt: the subsequent monetary policy has entered the escort stage for wide credit. The capital side is still relatively friendly and has some support for the short end. However, the long end is disturbed by the expectation of wide credit, and the current duration strategy is not dominant. After all, at present, due to the problem of real estate, credit and direct financing have become two independent tracks. Otherwise, the goal of the central bank’s monetary policy will not change from “maintaining the reasonable growth of monetary credit and social financing scale” to “maintaining the reasonable growth of monetary credit”. The higher than expected growth of credit cooperatives in January proves that the policy has the ability to expand credit. Although the sustainability of credit expansion remains to be observed, in the case of weak fundamentals, the continuous overweight of the policy is the general direction until the credit continues to rise and drives the economy to stabilize. While the current credit trend is still uncertain, the interest rate may enter the bottom grinding stage. However, considering that the policy is still being introduced continuously, the risk of interest rate recovery cannot be ruled out. In this case, the duration strategy is not dominant.
Convertible bonds: the equity markets fluctuate. The convertible bond market is relatively resistant to decline. It pays attention to the theme of steady growth, high growth sector, annual report market, etc. This week, the equity markets fluctuated, and the convertible bond market was relatively resistant to decline. Nearly 80% of the convertible bonds recorded a decline. It will take time for convertible bonds to really get out of the tangled shock range. At present, the delicate balance still needs some key event breakthroughs, focusing on the theme of stable growth, high growth boom sector, annual report market, etc.
