Main points
At present, there is a strong tightening atmosphere of global monetary policy. In the UK, high inflation forced the Bank of England to raise interest rates before the Federal Reserve, and it has raised interest rates twice in a row. We expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates further in 2022. In Europe, at the interest rate meeting in January, the European Central Bank's margin turned to Eagle, but we believe that the pressure from inflation in the short term will not force the European Central Bank to make an overly fierce steering plan. The probability of raising interest rates before the second quarter of this year is not high. We need to pay attention to the changes of inflation data in the eurozone and Lagarde's statement. In the United States, it is not appropriate to predict the Fed's interest rate increase rhythm temsector if the Bank of England's interest rate increase rhythm is too much as a reference. At present, the "wage inflation" spiral in the United States is becoming more and more intense. Considering that the periodic peak of the epidemic caused by the Omicron mutant strain in the United States has passed, if the recovery of non-agricultural employment in the United States continues to be better than expected, the Fed's policy may be tightened faster, and the rate increase will be determined according to the inflation situation. The impact of inflation continuing to exceed expectations is that the market expects the Fed's more hawkish policy outlook, but whether the US dollar index will perform strongly is uncertain. The US dollar index is expected to run in the range of 95.2-96.9 this week.
Under the background of strong overseas demand but tight supply chain, China's recent exports are full of toughness and give the main support to the trend of RMB exchange rate. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that China's exports will still have a certain resilience in stages, giving a certain support to the RMB exchange rate, but the decline in exports will be a high probability event. Before there is no new mutant strain, the export margin will fall or appear in the second and third quarters, but attention should be paid to the uncertainty caused by the emergence of new unknown mutant strains.
To sum up, the RMB exchange rate is expected to run in the range of 6.33-6.400 this week. According to our judgment on the trend of RMB exchange rate, it is suggested that enterprises with demand for foreign exchange purchase in the near future can seize the opportunity to purchase foreign exchange, and enterprises with demand for foreign exchange settlement should not pursue the rise and can wait appropriately. Pay attention to the trend of Lagarde's speech on Tuesday, the US January PPI data and January retail sales data to be released on Wednesday, and the minutes of the monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday. Risk tips: the spread of the global epidemic, the shift process of monetary policies in various countries, and the progress of global economic recovery
