In January, both social financing and credit exceeded market expectations, and the broad currency has achieved initial results, and the broad credit has also begun to take shape. However, there were still contradictions in the credit structure in January. Residents' credit shrank, and enterprise short-term loans and bill financing were still important supports for credit. The good start of credit was mainly driven by policies rather than demand. The fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report released by the central bank on February 11 also re emphasized that the current economy is still facing the triple pressure of "demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation", steady growth is still continuing, and the broad monetary policy is not over yet.
The good start of credit in January was mainly driven by policies, and the credit structure still needs to be optimized. In the case of no significant improvement in the financing demand of the real economy, monetary easing, fiscal advance and project reserves jointly promoted the rise of credit in January. However, there is an imbalance in the credit structure, especially the growth of short-term loans and bill financing of enterprises is faster than that of medium and long-term loans, which reflects the characteristics of the first stage of wide credit, that is, the policy takes the lead, the supply promotes the large amount of credit, leads to economic recovery, the improvement of financing demand, and then drives the growth rate of social finance further upward. Before the demand side has not become the dominant force of wide credit, it is still necessary to promote credit expansion with wide currency. Under the triple pressure of "shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation", the medium and long-term problems such as potential economic growth, slowing population growth and low-carbon transformation can not be ignored, The Central Bank continues to emphasize that "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, strengthen cross cycle regulation, give full play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools, and pay attention to sufficient, accurate and forward force". Therefore, aggregate monetary policy continues to maintain a loose trend, and the importance of structural monetary policy continues to increase.
The constraints of wide currency have increased. In 2022, China's inflation pressure is generally controllable, but the central bank's concern about the Fed's interest rate hike has deepened. U.S. inflation has repeatedly hit new highs, the yield of U.S. bonds has risen sharply, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed significantly, and the acceleration of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has limited China's monetary policy. In the fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report, the central bank also changed the reference of "focusing on me" from the general tone of monetary policy to the exchange rate. Real economy: the price of black products fluctuates sharply, and the national development and Reform Commission will make a sound again. The signal of steady growth was strengthened, and the futures price of black products rose sharply after the festival. With the voice of the national development and Reform Commission, the price of black products fell. The demand level is relatively low, home ownership is cold during the Spring Festival, and the transaction area of commercial housing is significantly lower than that in previous years
There is a gap between the sales volume of passenger cars during the Spring Festival and that before the Spring Festival. Food prices: consumption fell after the festival and food prices fell. After the festival, residents' consumption contracted, the traditional off-season came, food prices fell month on month, and the prices of pork, eggs and vegetables fell one after another.
Commodities: crude oil prices fluctuated at a high level. This week, crude oil prices were mixed with long and short factors, OPEC + production was less than the agreed volume, US crude oil inventories continued to decline, US interest rate hike expectations were stronger, the situation in Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Iraq was unknown, and the high crude oil price fluctuated. Short term geopolitical changes may continue to dominate the trend of crude oil prices. Copper, aluminum and other non-ferrous metals strengthened in the off-season and prices soared under the force of low inventory and new and old infrastructure investment.
Financial markets: Social Finance exceeded expectations and long-term interest rates rose. Funds remained loose after the festival, with dr007 down to 1.98%, R007 down to 2.01%, and the short-term interest rate down to 1.92%. On February 10, the social finance data greatly exceeded expectations. In addition, the yield of 10-year US bonds exceeded 2%, and the long-term interest rate rose to 2.789%. The Shanghai index rose slightly, while the gem index continued to fall. At 2746.38 on February 11, the RMB exchange rate index fell slightly to 102.6.
