The people's Bank of China released the incremental data of social finance in January, exceeding market expectations
In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion and social finance increased by 6.17 trillion, the highest in the same period in history, and the growth rate of social finance stock continued to rise; The structure shows the characteristics of steady growth, and most of the loans may flow into infrastructure (medium and long-term loans of enterprises and high growth of government bonds); Consumption and real estate demand are still weak (residents' loans are weak, real estate high-frequency data are weak, and trust is weak). (for details, please refer to the report "will steady growth be far behind when credit is extended?"
The people's Bank of China issued the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021
Continuing the "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and pay attention to sufficient force, accurate force and forward force" since the central economic work conference at the end of 2021. It is expected that there will be relaxation in the stability of monetary policy, and it is expected to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates; Re mentioning "no flood irrigation" does not need to be over interpreted. Interest rates may still be reduced, but the space for policy interest rates may be limited; Adding "a better combination of stable aggregate and excellent structure", we believe that supporting small and micro enterprises, science and technology, green and other structural tools will become the norm, and we also implicitly hope to optimize the credit structure (the characteristics of credit impulse have been obvious since the second half of 2021); "Guiding the decline of enterprise loan interest rate", superimposed on previous calculations, we believe that even if the policy interest rate is not adjusted, there is still room for the decline of LPR interest rate. In addition, the central bank's expression of broad credit is more positive, requiring "effectively expanding loan delivery" and paying attention to the optimization of credit structure. Maintaining the previous judgment, credit cooperatives will continue to stabilize and broaden to the high point of the third quarter, and then fall back, paying attention to the opportunity of structural credit easing; The leverage ratio may increase slightly in the future to stabilize growth (see the report "more positive expression of stable credit - Interpretation of the central bank's 21q4 monetary policy report" for details).
The people's Bank of China and the Bank Of China Limited(601988) Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on the exclusion of affordable rental housing related loans from the management of real estate loan concentration
It is clear that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, which is conducive to the banking financial institutions to increase the credit supply of affordable rental housing projects, support the construction of China's housing security system, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Local governments use ice and snow resources to promote the cultural tourism industry and help steady growth
Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province use their rich ice and snow resources to develop the cultural tourism industry. Heilongjiang Province has issued supporting policies for the investment attraction of the cultural tourism industry, aiming to promote the high-quality development of the cultural tourism industry with a high level of openness. Including the introduction of enterprise headquarters, project construction, fixed asset investment, investment in cultural and creative industrial parks, investment in national 5A scenic spots, national tourist resorts and other means to stimulate the vitality of market players and help steady growth.
The national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation
The opinions pointed out that we should promote large-capacity electrified public transport and clean energy transportation tools such as electric power, hydrogen energy, advanced biological liquid fuel and natural gas, improve the layout and service facilities of charging and changing electricity, hydrogenation and gas (LNG) stations, and reduce the cost of clean energy in the field of transportation. Further improve the dual carbon policy system and boost the growth of new energy industry.
Overseas macro: US CPI data released in January hit a 40 year high
In January, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 6.0% year-on-year, reaching a new record, which is obviously related to the base effect, the increase of energy prices and core commodities. Inflation in the US is expected to peak soon, but we need to be vigilant that the recovery of service consumption and rising wages slow down inflation. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates three times a year under the benchmark situation. If inflation rises higher than expected, interest rates may be raised 4-5 times in the whole year and the table will be reduced by a larger margin. (for details, please refer to the report "will the Fed Speed up action? - Comments on us CPI data in January")
Risk tip: the rise of energy prices exceeded expectations, and the degree of credit easing exceeded expectations.
