After the disclosure of 2021 performance forecast of the sector, the proportion of 2021 performance forecast disclosure of the automotive sector focused on the head car enterprises and companies in the chassis and cockpit field was 44% (81 / 186), of which 55% (45 / 81, calculated by taking the median of non net profit deducted in the forecast, the same below) accounted for the year-on-year increase in non net profit, and 9% (7 / 81) accounted for the year-on-year loss. Specifically:
1. Complete vehicle: the three auto companies lost money and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) achieved growth. 1) Passenger cars: among the four car companies, only Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) achieved positive profit & year-on-year growth (deducting non net profit + 28% year-on-year), and Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) / Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) / Haima Automobile Co.Ltd(000572) lost 2.71 billion / 5.25 billion / 450 million respectively. The main reason for the loss is that the sales volume is small, resulting in insufficient scale effect; 2) Passenger cars: Six passenger car enterprises only made Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) profits (turning losses year-on-year and benefiting from the recovery of overseas demand); 3) Truck: Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) loss of 5.55 billion, mainly due to the negative impact of baowo equity confirmation on investment income, and the profit of about 5.33 billion.
2. Spare parts: 59% of the enterprises have predicted growth / loss, and the enterprises in chassis and cockpit have performed well. From the absolute value of profit and loss: among the parts enterprises, profit-making enterprises account for 69% (48 / 70); In terms of year-on-year changes: 1) the year-on-year growth rate of deducting non net profit is 50% (35 / 70), of which the parts companies with a base period profit of more than 100 million and a growth rate of more than 50% are mainly distributed in the chassis field ( Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Wanxiang Qianchao Co.Ltd(000559) ), intelligent cockpit ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) ); 2) The proportion of enterprises turning losses into profits accounted for 9% (6 / 70), mainly due to the mitigation of overseas epidemic, Chinese market development and cost control.
In January, the depth of passenger vehicle inventory continued to rise, and the head independent vehicle enterprises continued to make efforts to develop new energy
1. The depth of passenger car inventory continued to rise in January: Based on the weekly data of the passenger Federation, the batch sales of narrow passenger cars in January were + 2% / – 12% month on month, and the retail sales were – 4% / – 1% month on month, respectively. The market trend was generally stable; In terms of inventory, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of dealers in January was 1.46, which has rebounded month on month for four consecutive months.
2. The head independent vehicle enterprises continued to make efforts in new energy: 1) Byd Company Limited(002594) January sales volume was 95400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 125.1%, of which the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 93200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 361.7%; 2) The sales volume of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) January was 55600, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.0%, of which the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 72200, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.5%; 3) The sales volume of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) January was 237200, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.16%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 19100, a year-on-year increase of + 115.2%; 4) Geely Automobile sold 146400 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of – 6.4%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 17800, a year-on-year increase of + 534.1%; 5) Chery group sold 87000 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of + 11.8%, and new energy vehicles sold 20600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 179.6%.
Investment suggestion: we expect that with the deep recovery of inventory, wholesale and retail sales in the auto market is expected to usher in a synchronous recovery. 1. It is recommended to pay attention to Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) in the upward product cycle. 2. Suppliers of automotive electronics related parts are expected to realize domestic substitution and price volume increase in the acceleration of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + wire controlled braking), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (light control), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), etc.
Risk tip: the mitigation progress of core shortage in the automotive industry is less than expected, the recovery of industry demand is less than expected, the process of automotive intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicle industry is less than expected.
