Report guide
According to the financial associated press on February 10, the national measures for the supervision and management of commercial housing pre-sale funds have been formulated and promulgated recently. We believe that after the national standardization of the supervision of pre-sale funds, the situation of over strict implementation in some regions will be improved.
Key investment points
What is the pre-sale fund management system?
Regulatory funds are divided into key regulatory funds and general regulatory funds: key regulatory funds are used to ensure the normal progress of project construction. They are generally extracted based on the project cost or pre-sale funds multiplied by a certain proportion. The general regulatory funds (if there are development loans and mortgage loans, they are supervised by banks and financial institutions) refer to the regulatory funds beyond the amount of key regulatory funds. Real estate enterprises can withdraw them according to the regulations of each city, but they should give priority to the construction of regulatory projects or the repayment of development loans.
What is the supervision mode of pre-sale funds in different cities?
The implementation rules and intensity of pre-sale funds supervision in each city are different, and the supervision mode can be roughly divided into four categories: the key supervision funds are mostly based on the pre-sale funds or project cost multiplied by a fixed proportion, or based on the unilateral construction cost multiplied by the pre-sale area, and collected and supervised in proportion according to the sales progress. The supervision proportion of each city and the retention proportion of each node are different. A few cities conduct supervision according to the cumulative collection multiplied by a fixed proportion.
Among them, mode 1 (unilateral construction cost) × Area) is closest to the national pre-sale fund supervision standard. According to the approximate calculation of the average sales price of each line city and the unilateral surface construction cost, it can be concluded that the supervision proportion of key supervision funds in first tier cities is about 11%, second tier cities is about 22%, and third and fourth tier cities are about 24%. At present, according to mode 2 (pre-sale payment) × (regulatory proportion) cities that focus on the supervision of pre-sale funds are expected to release more restricted funds
What is the impact of changes in the pre-sale asset management system?
1) for real estate enterprises with excessive short-term capital supervision, the capital pressure is expected to be alleviated to some extent. 2) The bottom line of the guaranteed delivery policy will not change. It is expected that the nationwide impact of the policy will be limited, but it will have a significant impact on individual cities with too strict supervision. 3) Long term real estate enterprises still need to strengthen sales management, make the sales amount of the project reach the corresponding regulatory limit of each city as soon as possible, and then withdraw the excess funds.
Investment suggestion: Policy correction continues, and the beta market of the sector is not over
We believe that if the national regulation of pre-sale funds is standardized nationwide, the situation of over strict implementation in some regions will be improved. In this case, real estate enterprises can withdraw over regulated funds, alleviate short-term capital pressure and improve business stability. Since the real estate enterprises with better sales performance have more capital precipitation, we believe that the real estate enterprises that focus on the layout of core urban agglomeration and have better sales performance in 2021 are more favorable to the standardization of pre-sale capital supervision. The correction of capital deviation in the real estate industry continues, the industrial risks are further resolved, and the valuation elasticity of the corresponding target middle waist real estate enterprises is stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to: A shares – Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) ; H shares – Xuhui holding group. The positive real estate enterprises in the head still continue. It is recommended to pay attention to Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Resources Land, China Overseas Development and Longhu group. The valuation repair of real estate enterprises drives the valuation repair of corresponding property objects. It is recommended to pay attention to Xincheng Yue, Jinke service and Xuhui Yongsheng service.
Risk tips
It may take time for the policy to be implemented locally; The implementation of local policies was less than expected.
