In February, the report lowered the output and ending inventory of corn, wheat and soybean in 2021 / 2022
On February 9, 2022, the US Department of Agriculture released the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply and demand forecast report in February. Compared with the forecast report in January, the main adjustments include: reducing the global output and ending inventory of corn, wheat and soybean; Among them, corn and soybean continued to be revised down on the basis of last month, and the soybean output was revised down the most. The main reasons driving the above adjustments include: (1) the corn output in South America is expected to decrease and the ending inventory is expected to fall; (2) South American soybean production and ending inventory have been significantly reduced, and the inventory consumption is lower than expected; (3) Global wheat production is expected to decline, pulling down the ending inventory level; (4) The rice output was slightly revised up, the inventory at the beginning and end of the period changed little, and the global trade volume increased.
Corn and wheat: corn output and ending inventory decreased month on month, while wheat output and ending inventory decreased month on month
Corn: in 2021 / 2022, the global corn output was 1.205 billion tons (year-on-year + 7.33%), the import volume was 188 million tons (year-on-year + 1.28%), the export volume was 204 million tons (year-on-year + 12.67%), the consumption was 1.195 billion tons (year-on-year + 5.08%), the feed consumption was 752 million tons (year-on-year + 4.21%), and the ending inventory was 302 million tons (year-on-year + 3.48%). The inventory consumption ratio was 25.29% (year-on-year -0.39pct). Global corn supply and demand is tight, and corn prices are expected to rise.
Wheat: the predicted value of global wheat output in 2021 / 2022 is 776 million tons (year-on-year + 0.07%), the consumption is 788 million tons (year-on-year + 0.71%), the feed consumption is 161 million tons (year-on-year + 1.91%), and the ending inventory is 278 million tons (year-on-year - 4.02%). The inventory consumption ratio was 35.30% (year-on-year -0.25pct). The trade volume of wheat has increased and the consumption demand is strong.
Soybean: affected by drought, Brazil has great pressure on soybean production reduction
In the February report, it is expected that the global soybean inventory at the beginning of 2021 / 2022 will be 100 million tons (year-on-year + 5.04%), the output will be 364 million tons (year-on-year - 0.65%), the consumption will be 369 million tons (year-on-year 1.78%), and the ending inventory will be 92.83 million tons (year-on-year - 7.56%). The inventory consumption ratio was 25.15% (year-on-year -2.54pct). It is estimated that 6.99 million tons of U.S. soybeans will be produced at the beginning of 2021 / 2022 (year-on-year - 51.05%). In February, it was reported that the global soybean production and ending inventory in 2021 / 2022 were reduced, among which the soybean production and inventory in Brazil were revised down the most. In the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of soil moisture data in the southern hemisphere in 2020 / 2021 on the annual yield per mu and yield.
Rice: Global trade volume forecast increased
According to the February report, the global rice inventory at the beginning of 2021 / 2022 is 186 million tons (year-on-year + 2.60%), the output is 510 million tons (year-on-year + 0.56%), the consumption is 510 million tons (year-on-year + 1.52%), and the ending inventory is 186 million tons (year-on-year - 0.05%). The inventory consumption ratio was 36.51% (year-on-year -0.57pct). It is estimated that China's inventory consumption ratio will be 72.98% (year-on-year -4.54pct) in 2021 / 2022. China's rice supply level will be relatively stable and the pattern of booming supply and demand will remain unchanged.
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