Key investment points:
Shenwan computer index fell 4.74%, ranking 21st in the industry. From January 15 to February 12, the Shanghai stock index fell by 1.66%, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.65%, the gem index fell by 11.96%, the Shenwan computer index fell by 4.74%, 3.08 percentage points behind the Shanghai stock index and 2.09 percentage points behind the CSI 300 index, ranking 21st in the Shenwan industry.
The overall valuation is in the last 21% quantile and the median valuation is in the last 47% quantile. As of February 12, the computer sector (Shenwan) pe (TTM, excluding negative value) was 49.25 times, which was 47.25% after the history since 2016; PE (TTM, median) is 48.80 times, 21.36% after the history since 2016. The valuation (median) of the computer sector relative to the CSI 300 index was 7.63 times, up from 6.63 times last month.
The income of the China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) industry maintained good development and the total wages increased rapidly. In 2021, China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) and information technology service industry operated well, software business revenue maintained rapid growth, and profitability improved steadily. During the year, the average size of employees increased by 7.4% year-on-year, and the total salary increased by 15.0% year-on-year. In each segment, the growth rate of software product revenue declined slightly, and the prosperity of cloud computing, big data services, e-commerce, integrated circuit design and other fields was good.
Investment perspective. The computer sector fluctuated sharply, the overall performance was weak, and the valuation of the sector was still in a historically low range, but the segments such as digital currency still gained some upward momentum under the repeated emphasis on the digital economy. Major ministries and commissions represented by the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology have recently launched policies such as the action plan for digital village development and the notice on promoting cloud network integration and accelerating the construction of information infrastructure in small and medium-sized cities to promote the release of industry demand. The special debt disclosed in January and the increment of social financing scale in January show the strong support attitude of fiscal policy, which is expected to help effectively promote the subdivided fields with the government as the main customers, such as smart city, smart health care and smart education. The digital financial industry is expected to take the lead in promoting the relatively rapid development of the digital financial market in the short term. From a higher perspective, both the demand for the improvement of productivity and management efficiency and the demand for the reform of the financial industry with the theme of “three distributions” need to be implemented in the improvement of the digitization of the government and entity enterprises. Therefore, we suggest to pay attention to the subdivided fields that have Infrastructure Attributes in digital construction and are expected to benefit from the recovery of fiscal expenditure, such as Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) . Maintain the rating of “synchronous market” in the industry.
Risk tip: the development of the industry is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and international disputes aggravate the risk.
