\u3000\u3000 Joyvio Food Co.Ltd(300268) (300268)
Comments:
The global salmon demand boom has increased, and the company has significantly reduced its losses year-on-year.
According to the performance forecast, the company expects the net loss attributable to the parent company to be 170-300 million yuan in 2021, with a significant year-on-year loss of 410-540 million yuan, and a single quarter loss of 64-194 million yuan in Q4. The main reasons are: 1) the salmon market recovers. According to the NASDAQ salmon price index, the price of salmon has risen to NOK 73.48/kg in February 2022, and the selling price of the company’s products has increased. 2) At the end of 21, Chile was seriously affected by the epidemic, the labor cost increased, and the salmon harvest progress was affected. 3) Due to the impact of the epidemic on the fishing progress, there are signs of impairment of the company’s consolidated goodwill, which is expected to be impaired by 20-170 million yuan.
When the new general manager takes office, the company will accelerate the development of the Chinese market and improve the gross profit margin of products.
On January 28, 2022, the company announced that the new general manager Tang Yin took office. From 2022 to 2023, under his leadership, the company will explore the Chinese market from six dimensions: product, brand, supply chain, Chinese business collaboration, upgrading of food materials to food, and sales channels. In 2022, the company will focus on five sales channels: distribution, retail, catering, monopoly and special channel. China’s salmon market is in the early stage of development, with high market price and fast growth. From 2015 to 2019, China’s salmon import volume CAGR reached 31%. With the development of Chinese market, the gross profit margin of the company’s products is expected to increase.
The intelligent factory in zone 12 of Chile is expected to be put into operation, and the company will further reduce costs and increase efficiency.
The company’s production sea area spans 10, 11 and 12 districts, of which 12 districts have excellent natural endowment and huge production potential, but they are sparsely populated, lack of supporting infrastructure and lack of large-scale processing plants in the region. The local mariculture center can only passively choose long-distance transportation and processing or simple processing by nearby ships. The project is the first large-scale processing plant in the region, and the processing capacity of salmon is 72000 tons / year. After the construction is completed, it will further reduce costs and increase efficiency.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
The epidemic situation in 2021 affected the fishing progress, but the company increased its efforts to explore the Chinese market, so it lowered its forecast for 2021 and raised its forecast for 22 and 23 years. It is estimated that the EBITDA from 2021 to 2023 will be 270 / 711 / 1033 million yuan respectively, and the EV / EBITDA will be 31.50x/12.29x/8.4x; EPS is -1.27/0.74/1.82 yuan respectively. Considering EV / EBITDA and PE, and referring to the average valuation level of comparable companies in 23 years, the target price is maintained at 34.9 yuan and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tips
Natural disaster risk; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; Food safety risk
