\u3000\u3000 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481)
Event: Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) issued the announcement on the signing of daily operating contracts by holding subsidiaries and the announcement on the signing of major sales contracts by wholly-owned subsidiaries.
Sign a silicon wafer supply contract with Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , mainly including G12 silicon wafers, and new entrants of silicon wafers will be recognized by the downstream. According to the announcement of the company, Shuangliang silicon materials, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, signed a silicon wafer frame sales contract with Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , which agreed that the company would sell 392 million, 600 million and 900 million silicon wafers to Trina Solar from 2022 to 2024, including but not limited to G12, with a total sales amount of 15.95 billion yuan (including tax). Before that, the company had cooperated with Tongwei, aixu, Atlas Mainstream manufacturers such as Runyang Yueda have signed silicon wafer (silicon rod) sales contracts, which have been fully recognized by downstream customers. At present, the company's total orders on hand are about 63.686 billion yuan, which can provide order support for the subsequent launch of new production capacity.
Full orders for silicon wafers are in hand, and accelerate the expansion of phase II 20GW monocrystalline silicon wafers. At present, the construction of the company's phase I 20GW monocrystalline silicon project is nearly completed. Considering the good expansion of the downstream market and the full orders of silicon wafers on hand, the company plans to start the investment and construction planning of phase II project (20GW crystal drawing + slicing). The construction cycle is expected to be 2 years. After completion, the company will form a capacity of 40gw monocrystalline silicon wafers, jumping from a new entrant to one of the industry leaders.
The reduction furnace equipment has signed another large order, and the industry has entered the second wave of production expansion. As the leader of reduction furnace equipment, the company is expected to continue to increase orders and promote the release of performance. Recently, silicon materials continue to be in short supply, and the industry has ushered in the second wave of large-scale production expansion. Daquan plans to invest 8 billion yuan in the construction of 100000 tons of polycrystalline silicon production capacity in Baotou. Xinyi solar energy and Xinyi Glass will layout Qujing 200000 tons of production capacity base, Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) plans to invest 17.5 billion yuan to build Urumqi 200000 tons of polycrystalline silicon project, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) plans to invest 13.5 billion yuan to build Baotou 150000 tons of polycrystalline silicon project, The total scale of the newly announced projects alone exceeds 650000 tons. Since 2022, the company has successively signed polysilicon reduction furnace sales contracts with Daquan, Dongfang hope, Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) with a total amount of 1.562 billion yuan. Since the beginning of 2021, the company has signed reduction furnace equipment orders of more than 3.5 billion yuan. Stimulated by the large-scale expansion of the industry, the company's reduction furnace orders are expected to continue to be in a high boom and contribute to significant performance increment.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 300, 702 and 974 million from 2021 to 2023, with a corresponding valuation of 56.7, 24.2 and 17.5 times, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk tip: the industry demand does not meet expectations and the company's production capacity does not meet expectations.
