\u3000\u3000 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) (603392)
Event overview:
The company issued the announcement of 2021 annual performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 197.83%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.94 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 214.48%.
Analysis and judgment:
The net profit attributable to the parent company is close to the upper limit of the performance forecast range. In January 2022, the company’s batch issuance of bivalent HPV vaccine increased significantly year-on-year
Previously, the company issued an announcement of performance increase in 2021, which shows that the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.850-2.050 billion in 2021. The performance express shows that the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.016 billion in 2021, exceeding the median value of the performance pre increase range, close to the upper limit of the range, and the performance significantly exceeded expectations. The company’s performance in 2021 was much higher than expected, mainly due to the company’s continued booming production and sales of bivalent HPV vaccine, and the rapid growth of revenue and profit. At the same time, as covid-19 pneumonia has not been effectively controlled, the demand for overseas testing has increased significantly, and the company’s covid-19 raw material sales and overseas testing reagent export revenue have achieved rapid growth.
According to the latest batch issuance data of 2022 released by the Chinese people’s Procuratorate, in January 2022, the company issued 30 batches of bivalent HPV vaccine this year. We speculate that it is about 2.5-3 million, an increase of 363% – 456% year-on-year in January 2021. Considering the current situation that the supply of HPV vaccine in China is in short supply, the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine is currently in a state of booming production and marketing. The significant increase in the number of batches issued will help the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine business to increase rapidly.
The scale of HPV vaccine market in China is far from reaching the peak, so we are firmly optimistic about the large-scale growth of bivalent HPV vaccine of the company
According to the number of HPV vaccine batches issued by the Central People’s Procuratorate and the number of school-age women in China, by the end of 2021, the penetration rate of HPV vaccination among school-age women in China was only about 7%. According to the penetration rate of 30% / 45% / 60%, China still needs 280 / 4.5 / 620 million HPV vaccines, which is far from reaching the peak. The company’s bivalent HPV vaccine is given 2 shots for the age group of 9-14 years and 3 shots for imported products. The company’s products have the advantage of immunization program. At the same time, compared with imported products, the price advantage of the company’s products is very significant. The whole process immunization cost of the “two needle method” for young people is 38% of the imported second price, and the whole process immunization cost for people over 15 years old is 56% of the imported second price. The price difference is higher than that of imported four price and nine price. The company’s pricing has fully considered the issue of accessibility. The lower pricing has opened the gap with imported products, which has increased the people’s willingness to pay for HPV vaccine. At present, HPV vaccine supply in China is not enough. Multiple factors promote the company to continue high-speed and large-scale production of HPV vaccine in the future.
Investment advice
Considering the booming production and marketing of bivalent HPV vaccine of the company, and according to the latest performance express released by the company, on this basis, we raise the profit forecast for 2021 and temporarily do not adjust the profit forecast for 2022-2023. In 2021, the operating revenue increased from 5.192 billion yuan to 5.743 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 1.913 billion yuan to 2.013 billion yuan; EPS increased from 3.15 yuan to 3.32 yuan. From 2021 to 2023, the company’s operating revenue was 5.743/86.68/12 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.013/31.34/48.02 billion yuan, and the EPS was 3.32/5.16/7.91 yuan, corresponding to the share price of 206.19 yuan / share on February 14, 2022, and the PE was 62 / 40 / 26 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The company’s bivalent HPV vaccine sales are less than the expected risk; With the market competition of other domestic HPV vaccines in China, the risk of product price reduction is intensified; The sales of the company’s in vitro diagnosis business is less than the expected risk; The company’s vaccine research and development progress is less than the expected risk.
