\u3000\u3000 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) (603392)
Event: the company released its 2021 annual performance express, which is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.25%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 2.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 197.83%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent of 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 214.48%, which exceeded the expectation.
Comments:
The production and sales of bivalent HPV vaccine increased at the same time, driving a significant increase in performance. In terms of production capacity, due to the approval of pre potting product line in April and the expansion of production capacity of Xilin bottle dosage form in July, the company’s total production capacity of divalent HPV vaccine has been expanded to 30 million pieces / year, and the amount of approval and issuance has gradually increased since the third quarter of 2021; In terms of sales volume, according to the batch issuance information and prediction of the Central Inspection Institute, the company has 163 batches of bivalent HPV vaccines in 2021, with a batch issuance volume of about 10 million. Considering the strong market demand and the supply is far less than the demand, we believe that the products are close to full production and sales, and the production and sales are greatly improved compared with 2020. In addition, as covid-19 pneumonia has not been effectively controlled, the demand for overseas testing has increased significantly, and the company’s covid-19 raw material sales and overseas testing reagent export revenue have also achieved rapid growth.
Multiple factors drive the continuous high-volume of bivalent HPV vaccine. 1) The demand for HPV vaccine in China is large, and there is still room for growth several times; 2) Compared with imported products, the price of bivalent HPV vaccine of the company is low, the coverage age range is wide, and there is a 2-shot vaccination program for people aged 9-14, which has obvious cost performance advantages; 3) Following the free vaccination of bivalent HPV vaccine for female students around the age of 14 in Xiamen and Jungar banner, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong Province plans to invest 600 million yuan to provide bivalent HPV vaccine free vaccination for female students under the age of 14 in 2022-2024. It is expected to implement government procurement projects in more cities in the future; 4) The company’s bivalent HPV vaccine has been pre certified by who, and its products are expected to be exported overseas, opening a broader market for large-scale production.
The R & D pipeline is abundant and progressing smoothly. The phase III clinical trial of nine valent HPV vaccine has completed the third clinical field vaccination, which is expected to become the first approved domestic nine valent HPV vaccine; Lyophilized live attenuated varicella vaccine is in phase III clinical trial stage; The new freeze-dried live attenuated varicella vaccine (vzv-7d) has carried out phase II clinical trial; The 20 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has been approved for clinical trials. The company’s research projects are progressing smoothly and will gradually enter the harvest period. The product listing is expected to significantly increase the company’s performance.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 5.750/96.10/13.506 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 144.2% / 67.1% / 40.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.017/3.628/5.242 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 197.9% / 79.9% / 44.5%, corresponding to 67 / 35 / 25 times of PE from 2021 to 2023.
Risk factors: the promotion and sales of HPV vaccine are less than expected, and the product development is less than expected
