\u3000\u3000 Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) (002007)
Events: 1) the company recently announced that the tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine (children’s dosage form) has recently obtained the drug registration certificate; 2) The IPO application of the subsidiary Hualan vaccine gem was registered by the CSRC.
The tetravalent influenza vaccine for children is the exclusive product of the company, and the competition pattern is good. The approved quadruple Influenza Split Vaccine is intended for people aged 6 months to 3 years to prevent influenza virus caused by influenza viruses of the same type. The standard is 0.25ml, China’s first. Tetravalent influenza vaccine refers to the vaccine containing four influenza virus subtypes, specifically including four virus subtypes: influenza A virus H1N1, H3N2 of influenza A virus, Victoria strain of influenza B virus and Yamagata strain of influenza B virus. Compared with trivalent influenza vaccine, Yamagata strain of influenza B virus is increased. In 2020, the total amount of trivalent influenza vaccine for children in China is expected to be more than 10 million doses. The tetravalent vaccine of the company has a more comprehensive protective effect and is expected to replace the share of trivalent influenza vaccine for children, which is conducive to the growth of the company’s future performance.
The IPO of Hualan vaccine subsidiary has been approved by the CSRC and will be split and landed in the capital market. The split listing of Hualan vaccine was reviewed and approved by the GEM Listing Committee of Shenzhen Stock Exchange in August 2021, and recently approved by the CSRC. Hualan vaccine issued 40.01 million new shares in this IPO, with an issue price of 56.88 yuan / share. Hong Kong Kekang, the shareholder of Hualan vaccine, transferred its 15% equity of Hualan vaccine to Gaoling Huaying and Chenyi Qiming at a valuation of RMB 13.8 billion in March 2020. At present, Hualan vaccine occupies the main market share of influenza vaccine in China. Spin off and listing will promote the company to straighten out its governance structure and improve its financing ability, which is expected to accelerate the company’s expansion of pipelines and benefit long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.74 billion, RMB 2.14 billion and RMB 2.55 billion respectively, corresponding to eps0.5 billion 95, 1.18 and 1.40 yuan, maintaining the “hold” rating.
Risk tips: the plasma collection volume is less than expected, the volume of tetravalent influenza vaccine is less than expected, and the research and development progress is less than expected.
