\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751)
Event:
On February 14, the company plans to use its own funds to repurchase RMB common shares (A shares) issued by the company in the form of centralized bidding transaction. The shares to be repurchased this time are used for equity incentive or employee stock ownership plan. The price range of the shares to be repurchased is: ≤ 650 yuan / share, accounting for about 0.23% of the total issued share capital of the company, 162.5 million ≤ total repurchase funds ≤ 325 million.
Performance forecast review:
In the 21st year, the company is expected to realize a net profit of 540 ~ 640 million yuan, yoy + 59.54% ~ 89.08%. The company’s performance slightly exceeded market expectations. Among them, assuming that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years is 630 million, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 174 million, yoy + 45%.
Hjt on hand order calculation:
Since 2020, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) and its subsidiaries have successively won the bid for Huasheng 500mwhjt project, Tongwei Jintang 1GW middle line, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) 1.2gwhjt mass production line, Aikang 0.6gw heterojunction whole line equipment procurement, 1.8gw subsequent procurement intention, rec400mwhjt battery whole line equipment order, etc. As of December 25, 2021, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) heterojunction equipment orders on hand totaled about 1.8 billion yuan.
Comments: the heterojunction cost reduction and efficiency increase path is expected, and it is optimistic about the long-term growth value of the company.
1) industry: in the next two years, with the decline of equipment costs and the addition of new enterprises in the industry + the release of production capacity, the growth space of hjt heterojunction may be broader. As the key material of battery metallization, the cost of silver paste accounts for a very high proportion of the cost of heterojunction battery. The breakthrough of steel sector printing technology plays an important role in reducing the consumption of silver paste.
2) the company: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) has also continuously introduced new heterojunction cost reduction and efficiency enhancement technologies. The full opening steel sector printing technology introduced by Maiwei is an innovation of the traditional screen printing technology, which will further reduce the manufacturing cost of high-efficiency heterojunction Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery. At present, the cost of heterojunction battery is still high compared with other batteries. According to our calculation, in terms of 166 size, the cost of heterojunction is about 1.25 wool higher than that of perc silver slurry in terms of actual consumption and price. If the full opening steel sector technology is successfully introduced, it is expected to reduce about 0.26 wool; If the gate line is further reduced, it is expected to further compress the cost of silver paste, so as to drive the heterojunction to discharge faster.
Profit forecast
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years is 636 / 841 / 1191 million respectively, and the corresponding PE is 76 / 58 / 41x respectively.
Risk warning: the implementation of repurchase is not as expected; The product price is affected by the price fluctuation of raw materials; The promotion speed of heterojunction equipment is lower than the market expectation; The photovoltaic demand is lower than the market expectation; The performance report is the preliminary calculation result, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company’s 2021 annual report.
