The research report released on February 14 said: maintain the recommended rating of environmental protection public / building materials / coal industry.
Accelerate the improvement of the institutional framework for green and low-carbon energy transformation: Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation, focusing on the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in China’s energy related fields and aiming at the shortcomings of existing energy institutional mechanisms and policies, focusing on deepening institutional reform Mechanism innovation and key policies, based on the whole process of energy production and consumption, put forward the overall requirements, key tasks and policy measures to improve the energy green and low-carbon transformation system and mechanism. As one of the important guarantee schemes of carbon peak carbon neutralization “1 + n” policy system, the opinions is the concretization of the policy guarantee measures of China’s “double carbon” goal in the energy field. It will be implemented in coordination with a series of carbon peak policies in the energy field to form a policy joint force and systematically promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.
The demand of cement and glass market has warmed up: the northern region is currently in the phase of peak shifting and kiln shutdown in winter, and the southern provinces have also started to stop kilns due to the advent of the Spring Festival. The downward demand has driven the cement price down. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the market will gradually start and recover, the cement market demand will pick up, and the upward demand will drive the increase of cement price. In terms of supply, according to the staggered peak kiln shutdown plan announced by various provinces across the country, the number of kiln shutdown days in the first quarter generally exceeded that in the same period last year. It is expected that the cement supply will remain stable after the festival. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the cement area. The spot price of float glass continued to rise this week. After the festival, the middle and lower reaches of float glass were further replenished, especially the centralized preparation of processing plants, which drove the rise of glass prices to a certain extent. With the centralized commencement of processing plants after the festival, it is expected that the glass market demand will grow steadily, driving the price of float glass to further increase.
The periodicity of the industry is weakened and the stability of profits is enhanced: the recent policy direction is positive and loose. In November, the national standing committee decided to set up a 200 billion yuan refinance to support the clean and efficient utilization of coal. In December, the central economic work conference stressed that “based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, we should pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy”. The two sessions are coming in March, and the “20th National Congress” will be held in the second half of the year, The intensity of safety supervision and environmental protection will only increase, and the supply and demand pattern will be better. In terms of demand, the State Council issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan. The coal related part includes three key aspects: coal-based positioning, cogeneration transformation of coal-fired power plants and deregulation of coal consumption indicators, which has played a strong role in boosting coal demand. In the future, coal demand is gradually weakened under the influence of “dual control of energy consumption”. The cyclical weakening of the industry, the enhancement of profit stability and the good cash flow situation of coal enterprises in recent years have also laid a solid foundation for some coal enterprises to develop in depth into new energy, new materials and industries.
Investment suggestions: environmental protection and public utilities: recommended China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) (600905. SH), Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (600011. SH), Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) (300614. SZ), Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) (600323. SH), Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) (603588. SH), Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) (002266. SZ), Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) (688087. SH). Building materials: ad shares (002641. SZ), Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) (002791. SZ), Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) (000786. SZ), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271. SZ), Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) (300737. SZ), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (002372. SZ), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636. SH), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176. SH) are recommended. Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (601088. SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (601225. SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) (000983. SZ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (600348).
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; The risk that the downstream demand is less than expected; The risk that the landing effect of production restriction is not as good as expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; The risk of sharp decline in coal prices under the pressure of policy regulation.
