After the festival, the price of pigs continued to drop, and there was a deep loss in self breeding. According to the news data, the average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities in China was 13.96 yuan / kg on February 11, 22, with a month on week increase of – 0.07%; Pig prices have continued to rebound to the end of November since the bottom was reached in October 21, with a rebound range of 67%. The continuous downward trend was started in early December. At the profit level, the average monthly breeding profit of self breeding from November to December of 21 was positive, while it changed from positive to negative in January of 22. In January, the industry lost 249 yuan / head. After the lunar new year, the overall decline continued. On February 11, the profits of China’s self breeding and outsourcing piglet breeding were -336.70 yuan / head and 2.44 yuan / head respectively. The loss range of the former continued to increase, while the latter maintained a break even.
From the perspective of production capacity, according to the statistics of Yongyi data, the number of fertile sows in January 22 was – 1.6% month on month, maintaining a downward trend and continuing the de industrialization of production capacity. From the perspective of aquaculture loss, the loss will bring greater cash flow consumption and high probability of production capacity deregulation. Therefore, the interactive verification of capacity and profit data is relatively reliable.
In terms of production indicators, the number of newly bred sows, the number of healthy piglets per litter and the survival rate of piglet delivery room showed a downward trend in January.
From our price tracking indicators, the prices of piglets and sows continue to decline. According to the news, the prices of piglets and binary sows were 27.41 yuan / kg and 32.82 yuan / kg on February 11. Combined with the pig price, the three are in the process of downward exploration simultaneously, which is in line with our expectations. The time of the second bottom is still ahead (we expect it to be in the middle of the 22nd year). From the perspective of investment, we all think it is a high-quality layout opportunity before the second bottom. We reiterate that the layout is now. Secondly, from the perspective of valuation, the current market value of individual breeding stocks is relatively low in history, so we can seize the opportunity. Finally, the investment in pig breeding sector is viewed with cycle thinking and expectation thinking.
The price of yellow feather chicken is high, while the price of white feather chicken remains stable. According to the data of xinmu.com, the price of fast big chicken and medium speed chicken on February 11, 22 was 7.50 yuan / kg and 7.94 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of – 5.06% and – 2.34% last week. During the Spring Festival, the national average price of yellow chicken exceeded 8 yuan, and the price was strong. Since November 21, the price of yellow feather chicken has fluctuated upward, the monthly average price has shown a steady upward trend, and the overall price is at a high level. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to relevant stocks. In terms of white feather chickens, the prices of white feather broilers and broiler seedlings in the main production areas were 7.99 yuan / kg and 1.82 yuan / feather respectively on February 11, 22, and the month on month ratio remained unchanged.
The agricultural sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.44pct. This week, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector was + 5.26%, the Shanghai composite index was + 3.02% in the same period, and the CSI 300 rose by 0.82%. The three sectors with the best performance in agriculture are livestock and poultry breeding, planting and animal health care, with + 8.23%, + 4.29% and + 3.83% respectively.
Investment suggestions continue to emphasize the allocation of pig breeding sector, and individual stocks are recommended to pay attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) .
