Market review: the tourism sector rose alone, outperforming the market 12pct01 24-02.12, CITIC consumer service sector outperformed CSI 300 index by 12.00pct. The top gainers in the Guoxin social service sector were Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) (38%), Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (27%), Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) , Huazhu group-s, Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) ; The stocks with the highest decline were Suzhou Kingswood Education Technology Co.Ltd(300192) , Doushen(Beijing) Education&Technology Inc(300010) , Dalian Shengya, Naixue tea, Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(000526) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) . The epidemic control was relaxed and covid-19 specific drug was approved, and the scenic spot / outbound tourism / hotel sector performed well.
Industry trends: the import of covid-19 specific drugs has been approved, and China exemption has been granted the duty-free operation right of the airport again. The State Food and drug administration has approved the import registration of Pfizer covid-19 virus treatment drug nimatovir tablets / ritonavir tablets combined packaging; The Confederation of British industry (CBI) said recently that China and the UK have agreed to conduct a two-week flight test period in February, hoping that the industry expects the direct flights connecting London Heathrow airport and Shanghai Pudong airport to be restarted as soon as possible; Since February 9, 2022, Yunnan Province has resumed the operation of inter provincial team tourism and “air ticket + Hotel” business by Yunnan travel agencies and online tourism enterprises; China tax exemption group won the bid for the right to operate the inbound and outbound tax exemption project of terminal T4 of Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport.
Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect: except Songcheng / Xiabu, the other core targets were marginally increased, and the core target: Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) was reduced. During the reporting period (01.24-02.12), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) shareholding ratio was 10.1% / + 0.02pct, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) 7.1% / – 0.4pct, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) 6.8% / + 0.2pct, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) 5.3% / + 0.01pct. Core target of Hong Kong stocks: Xiabu was reduced.
During the reporting period (ibid.), jiumaojiu was 39.4% / + 1.8pct, Haidilao was 18.1% / + 1.3pct, sipping was 15.2% / – 0.1pct, Naixue’s tea was 13.2% / + 3.4pct, and Helens was 10.3% / + 1.9pct.
Risk tips: natural disasters, epidemic situations and other systematic risks; Policy risk; The acquisition is lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: the worst moment of fundamentals has passed, and the preferred layout is waiting for flowers to bloom to maintain the “over allocation” rating of the sector. Although the short-term epidemic continues to repeat and there is still pressure, investors now expect a “marginal improvement” in the epidemic prevention and control situation after March, and the worst moment of the industry has passed. Based on the uncertainty of the repeated short-term epidemic and the positive expectation of the stabilization of the epidemic in the middle line, based on the logic of the middle line and based on the dimension of 3-6 months, we slightly repeat the Soviet logic, give consideration to performance, valuation and theme, and select Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , hellens, jiumaojiu, Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Huazhu group-s, yum China, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) . Based on the time dimension of the next 1-3 years, we suggest to continue to focus on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , hellens, Huazhu group-s, jiumaojiu, Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , yum China-s, Haidilao, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Naixue’s tea, etc.
