Since the beginning of 2022, the market painting style has changed suddenly, and the golden track has been hit hard. Institutional heavyweight stocks fell sharply, and the market dispute over the "group" investment of public funds escalated again.
China fund daily interviewed a number of fund companies. In the view of public funders, the era of flow puts forward higher requirements for the investment and research ability of fund companies and fund managers. As managers, fund companies should pursue restrained development and sustainable scale growth, and call on the whole industry to work together to achieve high-quality growth.
"group investment" triggered heated discussion
Since 2022, the market has been adjusted continuously, and the gold track, such as Baijiu, medicine and new energy, has plunged into dive. Many of the fund's heavily loaded stocks have suffered heavy losses. The reason is that the unexpected adjustment is related to the expected pressure of overseas liquidity, the change of industry logic and capital switching. In this adjustment, the public funds make complaints about investment.
Dai Qing, strategic analyst of YONGYING fund, believes that the adjustment of "track stocks" has both liquidity reasons and industry level problems. In terms of macro liquidity, the Federal Reserve accelerated the tightening of liquidity, the US bond interest rate continued to soar, and the US stock technology stocks fell sharply, suppressing the power new, military industry, semiconductor and other sectors with concentrated A-share positions and high valuation. In terms of micro liquidity, the profit-making effect of A-Shares has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year. At the beginning of this year, the issuance of new funds was cold, which suppressed the heavy positions of funds. At the industry level, negative factors such as declining subsidies for new energy vehicles, rising contradiction between lithium supply and demand, and reduction of semiconductor leaders have repeatedly disturbed the growth industry.
Insiders said that in the past two years, the structural market of A shares was outstanding, and the stocks bought by public funds continued to rise, such as Baijiu, medicine, PV, new manufacturing in 2020 and new energy in 2021. The convergence behavior of institutional investors makes the market more extreme.
A person from the public offering brand department in South China said that the potential impact caused by the public offering "holding a group" is reflected in at least two aspects. First, the valuation is stratified, and some middle and tail companies are seriously discounted, which will affect the financing function and normal operation of the secondary market in the long run; Second, the sensitivity of overvalued value to marginal changes in liquidity is extremely high. Once the market profit-making effect weakens, the price of conglomerated stocks will fall, which will drive the net value of the fund to withdraw and trigger redemption. The fund will be forced to reduce its positions to deal with redemption, forming a vicious circle of "redemption sell down".
A person from a fund company in Shenzhen said frankly that from the common sense, the "group" model can not last long. OTC funds enter the market through public funds and achieve high performance by "holding together". Once the "group" market is loose, the market volatility will increase. If the performance of public funds stagnates or even regresses, the whole market may be short of money, and the bull market will come to an end.
A fund manager reviewed the extremely harmful public offering "group" action in 2015. "After a sharp decline in the middle of the year, the market began to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2015. By December, the valuations of many stocks had even exceeded the peak of 2015 and were still rising. The biggest fear of 'Baotuan' is collective withdrawal, and the withdrawal of 'Baotuan' is almost inevitable - the rise ended at the end of 2015, and the market began to fall sharply at the beginning of 2016."
Some insiders also believe that "holding together" is the result of asset allocation of public funds under the current macro environment and structural market. It is the recognition of excellent enterprises, and the shareholding concentration of institutions may be further improved in the future.
A public offering investment director in Beijing believes that "holding together" is a natural choice made by market participants after weighing risks and benefits under the background of optimizing and improving the capital market system. It is a result rather than a means. "Institutions' holding together 'embrace performance growth and certainty, and it is the embodiment of embracing the investment concept of value creation and value growth. However, with the opening of the stress test, the replenishment of undervalued stagflation varieties and the differentiation of the' holding together 'sector show that funds are looking for more cost-effective varieties, which may be behind the position adjustment and stock exchange of some star funds."
"It's not just funds holding together, but retail investors also have such behavior." A growth style fund manager in South China said that with the continuous strengthening of market awareness, there will be a phenomenon of capital agglomeration. This is mainly due to the increasing transparency of market information, and participants soon formed consistent expectations, resulting in the rapid realization and end of the market.
Chunhou Fund said that institutionalization is the inevitable trend of equity asset allocation. The current market environment seems difficult, but this is only a small twists and turns in the process of institutional adjustment. In the long run, it will still develop upward and healthily.
promote the high-quality development of the industry
There are still different views on the institutional group behavior industry, but the understanding of the fund industry is completely consistent on the point that the fund industry should unremittingly pursue high-quality growth.
A person from the public offering market department in Shanghai said bluntly, "behind the group is the assessment mechanism of institutional convergence, the standard of 'beauty pageant' and the driving force of maximizing interests."
In his view, the fund's "group" investment is directly related to the unreasonable incentive mechanism of the fund management company. "Funds are charged according to the scale of funds managed, which leads to excessive pursuit of scale growth by fund managers, and there is a short-term tendency to the evaluation and incentive system of fund managers. Performance ranking is carried out every quarter and every month. Under the pressure of short-term ranking, fund managers often only focus on short-term interests and become passive recipients of 'Group' investment."
In addition to blaming the "holding together" on the pursuit of short-term interests, the interviewed fund managers also analyzed the problem from a more rational perspective.
Zhou Qiyuan, investment manager of Haifutong fund, said frankly that it is understandable that institutional investors are similar in analysis methods and investment ideas. However, a good investment manager should have his own unique judgment and forward-looking vision. Fund managers can participate in the investment of relevant sectors, but they must have a deep and clear understanding of the "group holding" behavior.
A public fund manager in Shanghai pointed out that the era of flow puts forward higher requirements for the investment and research ability of fund companies and fund managers. When the scale changes rapidly, fund managers should better balance income and risk, develop with restraint, and pursue quality and sustainable scale growth. In this process, continuously improve the risk control process, improve the diversified investment style and diversified product line, meet the increasingly diversified financial needs of investors, and promote the high-quality development of the industry.
At the same time, he also believes that fund companies should have a systematic and in-depth continuous communication with investors and adhere to "providing appropriate products to appropriate customers". "As fund managers, we should stick to the original intention of investment, always proceed from the interests of investors, constantly improve the investment framework and logic, consolidate investment research ability, improve long-term investment performance, and avoid being disturbed by short-term market environment and emotions."
