Today (February 14), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. Affected by the decline of the peripheral stock market, the three major indexes opened low in the morning, and then the Shenzhen index and the gem index quickly rose and turned red, but the rebound was limited and fell into adjustment again, while the Shanghai index was more weak, showing a pulse downward pattern, and finally the three major stock indexes closed down.
In this regard, from the perspective of safety, Aijian securities mentioned that attention should be paid to the industry repair opportunities of emotional overreaction. Of course, since the market is still unstable, it should not be too radical. It is more from the perspective of strategic allocation. Emotional repair is not pessimistic. Overall, the market sentiment has been repaired, but it is still unstable. It is expected that the market will continue to repeat in the short term.
At the same time, from the perspective of market environment, the institution further analyzed that China’s liquidity environment is good, which is conducive to the support of market valuation level. The influence of overseas markets and Geopolitics on market sentiment is the main driving factor of recent market fluctuations. However, this is also a short-term impact. China’s medium and long-term environment is good. It is expected that with the repair of market sentiment, the overseas impact will gradually weaken in the future.. The short-term market shock remains unchanged, and the strategy remains cautious but not pessimistic. From a strategic point of view, consumption and technology are still the main line, and pay attention to the configuration machine brought by the opportunity adjustment of the main line.
sector:
I. covid-19 drug
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that with the approval of Pfizer specific drugs, the normalization of the epidemic situation in China will become a trend. Paxlovid’s emergency approval in China shows the feasibility of national recognition of oral small molecule drugs for covid-19, and provides a drug treatment solution for covid-19 epidemic in China. Paxlovid’s clinical data show that its efficacy is superior. Starting paxlovid treatment within 5 days after the onset of symptoms (twice a day for 5 consecutive days) can reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. We believe that the approval of paxlovid marks the normalization of the epidemic in China, and “vaccine + specific drug” is expected to finally defeat covid-19.
In the long run, China’s prevention and control policies are expected to be relaxed. At present, overseas countries have maintained an open attitude towards the epidemic. Considering that the main active component of paxlovid has the same antiviral effect on mutant strains in vitro and has curative effect on Omicron and other mutant strains, paxlovid can be taken orally as a small molecule drug, and the treatment method is convenient and controllable. We believe that China’s prevention and control policy is expected to be gradually relaxed under the premise of order, and opening the door to the country will be the trend in the long run.
The agency further analyzed that the localization of specific drugs is worth looking forward to, and the changes of related industries are worth paying attention to. On the one hand, covid-19 specific drugs have huge market prospects in China. Paxlovid has been approved or authorized for emergency use in more than 10 countries around the world, and the production capacity can not meet all the markets. Moreover, covid-19 drugs are of strategic importance. It is worth looking forward to the localization of covid-19 specific drugs, and the small molecule pipeline under research is expected to accelerate its listing through emergency approval; Chinese enterprises with R & D capability and API integration will benefit. The approval of oral covid-19 specific drugs is expected to accelerate the R & D of small molecule specific drugs in China. On the other hand, Pfizer’s paxlovid needs a large number of APIs such as carbonic anhydride, which is good for Chinese api companies, such as Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) . Some Chinese cdmo enterprises have obtained relevant production orders, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . It is expected that with the further expansion of production capacity, relevant cdmo enterprises are still expected to benefit.
In addition, AVIC securities mentioned that with the confirmation of the end of economic policy and the arrival of a new round of stable growth cycle, we believe that the focus of market repair may continue to focus on sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic. At the time point when valuation switching is gradually approaching, we need to layout in advance, especially pay attention to the sustainability of marginal improvement and growth. From the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low valuation. The market has been worried that the suppression of the price segment by centralized purchase and medical insurance negotiation will change the growth attribute of the pharmaceutical industry. We believe that the logic of long-term and stable growth of the pharmaceutical industry remains unchanged when the demand is determined. In the long run, with the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices, medical services and medical consumption, and tap second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation.
two, Baijiu
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the Spring Festival Baijiu sales meeting market expectations. The high-end wine dynamic sales are stable and the gift giving scene is rigid; The secondary high-end dynamic sales are stable, the price is stable and the inventory is low. The resumption of banquet scene also has a positive impact on the secondary high-end demand. In addition, benefiting from the recovery of consumption scenarios, it will also accelerate the upgrading of consumption. The consumption atmosphere of local liquor is better than that in 2021. The consumption upgrading of Hui liquor and Su liquor and the performance of dynamic sales in the Spring Festival are more prominent. Long term consumption upgrading will continue to promote the structural differentiation of Baijiu industry, and focus on high-end products and famous brand products. The recovery of consumption scenarios will have a certain role in promoting the determination of the high-end Baijiu and the flexibility of the high-end liquor and regional liquor.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) mentioned that benefiting from the return of the Spring Festival and driven by the upgrading under the background of regional economic cycle, the dynamic sales in Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanxi and other regions performed well. Henan, Tianjin, Hangzhou and other regions are greatly affected by the epidemic and the demand feedback is relatively poor. Structurally, high-end famous wines remain stable, with strong wholesale prices and stable dynamic sales; The sub high-end liquor with a high proportion of banquet scenes is greatly affected, and the sub high-end pressure is more obvious in regions with relatively weak demand. Overall, Baijiu performance is in line with expectations during the Spring Festival. The famous wine maintains consistent stability, and the emblem of wine and Su wine is relatively eye-catching.
The agency further analyzed that the market is more rational for the Baijiu selling in the Spring Festival. A callback year ago has basically released the relative negative sentiment of the market for the rush season. Tracking shows that Baijiu sales performance has been stable during the Spring Festival season, and market sentiment is expected to gradually warm up. At present, the high-end Baijiu Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) are still the first to be promoted. Pay attention to the opportunities of local wine and marginal changes of secondary high-end, and recommend Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) .
China Baijiu securities company said that China’s economic development is steady and the trend of consumption upgrading is continuing. The per capita disposable income and high net worth population increase steadily. The demand for Baijiu, especially high-end and secondary high-end liquor, is definite in Qianhai. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu is a highly differentiated wine industry. The high-end liquor has improved its brand strength and performance through raising prices, while the second high-end liquor enjoys the blank price band after the high-end Baijiu price rises. The upgrading of the secondary and high-end liquor products has the growth space of volume and price rising. Under the promotion of the strategy of upgrading products and selling the whole nation, the industry of high-end Baijiu has continued to improve.
Figure 123567}
