Today, the infant and child sector strengthened significantly, and individual stocks staged a rise in the limit, Goldlok Holdings(Guangdong) Co.Ltd(002348) , Jiangsu Aoyang Health Industry Co.Ltd(002172) , Vtron Group Co.Ltd(002308) , Zhejiang Huamei Holding Co.Ltd(000607) , Anzheng Fashion Group Co.Ltd(603839) , Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , Hybio Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300199) rose nearly 11%, and Sunvim Group Co.Ltd(002083) and mubang High Tech rose more than 6%. On the news side, recently, the policies related to three children in many places have been promoted successively. The International Bureau of Statistics recently pointed out that China’s total population will remain above 1.4 billion for some time in the future, and the effect of the three child policy will gradually appear. Among the birth population, the proportion of two children will rise from about 30% in 2013 to about 43% in 2021.
the leader of early education has five boards in seven days, and toy stocks have strengthened significantly
Due to the continuous favorable policies, the infant and child sector continued to rise after the festival, and individual stocks also strengthened in a large area. As of today’s (February 14), the cumulative increase of Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) since the end of the festival (this month) was 47.3%, Goldlok Holdings(Guangdong) Co.Ltd(002348) increased by nearly 36.4%, Kidswant Children Products Co.Ltd(301078) , Annil Co.Ltd(002875) , Shandong Hiking International Co.Ltd(600735) , mubang high tech, Hailun Piano Co.Ltd(300329) and more than 10 other stocks increased by more than 10%.
Note: recent trend of baby concept stocks (as of February 14)
Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) and Goldlok Holdings(Guangdong) Co.Ltd(002348) have recently performed the most brightly in infant and child concept stocks. As of today’s closing, they have won 5 boards in 7 days and 4 boards in 7 days respectively. It is reported that Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) is mainly engaged in early childhood quality education and language training for young people to study abroad. Its 2021 semi annual report shows that the proportion of the company’s early education services in operating revenue increased to 94.48% from 45.03% in the same period of the previous year. Goldlok Holdings(Guangdong) Co.Ltd(002348) is mainly engaged in toys and internet education, and its subsidiary Gaole education is mainly aimed at K12 related groups in China.
East Asia Qianhai Securities believes that in the early education industry, the scale of China’s early education market was less than 150 billion yuan in 2015 and is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2020, with a CAGR of about 20%. Benefiting from the liberalization of the three child policy, it is expected that listed companies related to the early education industry will still be in the stage of rapid expansion in the next few years. In terms of toy industry, the average toy consumption expenditure of Chinese households in 2018 was only 269 yuan, while that of the United States reached 2153 yuan, eight times that of China. With the slow rise in the proportion of infants in first tier and quasi first tier cities and the increase in residents’ disposable income, China still has great potential to increase in the field of toy consumption expenditure.
the three child policy encourages childbirth, and many industries are expected to benefit
In recent years, relevant policies to encourage childbirth have been continuously promoted, and the number of newborns is expected to continue to increase. East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that with the liberalization of the three child policy, it is expected that an additional 300000 three child newborns will be born in China every year. With the subsequent national improvement of supporting measures of Fertility Policies, it is expected that China’s annual financial subsidies to encourage fertility will exceed 2 trillion yuan in the future, which will have a positive impact on the capital market and related industries.
The gradual release of reproductive demand and the increase in the number of newborns directly benefit infant and young child industries such as milk powder and maternal and infant consumption. With the growth of infant and young children, industries such as early education, childcare and toy entertainment will benefit. At the same time, in the medium and long term, sectors such as vocational education and higher education are also expected to benefit in the long term. There are four specific aspects related to “marriage, upbringing” and “benefits”:
Benefit track 1: “life” is endless, and the benefit track related to fertility: assisted reproduction ( Jinxin reproduction ); Confinement center ( Aidi Palace )
Benefit track 2: stop “raising” to earn interest. Benefit track related to infant rearing: milk powder ( China flying crane, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ); Diapers ( C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) ); Mother infant chain ( Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) ); Children’s food ( Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) , Three Squirrels Inc(300783) ); Children’s clothing ( Anta sports, Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) ); Small household appliances for mothers and infants ( Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) ); Pediatrics and drugs ( Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Hainan Huluwa Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(605199) ); Seven seat car ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ); Stroller and safety seat ( good child international ).
Benefit track 3: Zhenmin’s “education” morality. Benefit track related to infant education: Preschool early education ( Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) ); Children’s toys ( Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , Meisheng Cultural & Creative Corp.Ltd(002699) )
Benefit track 4: Yaner new “marriage”, benefit track related to wedding: Wedding catering ( Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ); Wedding jewelry ( Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) ); Wedding wine ( Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
