Today, the market is still in rotation, and the strong building materials, agriculture and animal husbandry, real estate and non banking in the early stage led the decline today; The lithium battery, cro and military industry that have been continuously adjusted in the early stage have rebounded. So can growth track stocks stabilize and what are the prospects for the future?
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) : Shouyang near the annual line
It is worth noting that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , as the wind vane of growth stocks, rebounded near the annual line today and closed up 3.68%. On December 3 last year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) set a price of 692 yuan / share. From the high of 692 yuan / share to the closing on February 11 this year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has retreated by nearly 30% in more than two months.
Does today's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) stabilization near the annual line mean that the adjustment of growth stocks has come to an end? Different parties have different views. In the end, it still needs to wait for the market to give an answer.
long term funds: 10 billion bottom growth ETF mainly
According to the statistical data of China stock market news choice, since February this year, ETF funds known for long-term investment have also been bottoming out against the trend, and some growth funds
According to China stock market news choice, since February this year, the share of the top 30 ETFs has increased, with a total increase of more than 12.6 billion yuan. It is worth noting that although there are ETFs of value types such as infrastructure 50 and A50, they are more ETF funds of growth style.
Specifically, the largest increase in share is the China concept Internet ETF. In February, the share increased by 1.5 billion. According to the estimation of range transactions, the increased holding amount is nearly 1.9 billion yuan; The second is to create 50ETF, with a share increase of more than 1.1 billion and an increase of more than 1.3 billion yuan.
Medical ETF, infrastructure 50ETF, gem ETF, e fund, carbon neutralization ETF, securities and insurance ETF, mass entrepreneurship and innovation 50ETF and pharmaceutical ETF respectively obtained share growth ranging from more than 1.1 billion to 4.80, and the increased holding amount also ranged from 1.6 billion yuan to 200 million yuan.
While military ETF, innovation and entrepreneurship fund ETF, Hang Seng medical ETF, semiconductor ETF, 5getf, innovation and entrepreneurship ETF, chip ETF and other growth type ETFs respectively obtained a share growth of more than 300 million and only 200 million.
From the perspective of ETF industry distribution, among the top 30 ETFs with share growth, although there are value biased ETFs such as infrastructure, A50, aquaculture and banking, more are ETFs such as China concept Internet, mass entrepreneurship and innovation, medicine, carbon neutralization, military industry, semiconductor and new energy vehicles.
northbound capital: focus on increasing holdings and growth
In addition to ETF, northbound capital has also actively distributed growth stocks since this year. According to the data of China stock market news choice, from the perspective of the top 20 stocks whose positions in the North account for the growth of circulating stocks, although there are China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co.Ltd(600125) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) and other value stocks, the mainstream is still growing.
Among them, Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) and other four growth stocks accounted for the largest increase in the proportion of circulating shares this year, especially Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , which ranked first, increased by more than 5.6%, which can be described as a "placard" increase.
The growth rates of Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) 3 individual shares in the proportion of circulating shares were also as high as 4.43%, 4.02% and 3.27% respectively, while the increased holdings of the four individual shares were 826 million yuan, 184 million yuan, 1406 million yuan and 572 million yuan respectively.
Lithium battery upstream materials such as Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) have also obtained centralized holdings of northbound funds, accounting for nearly 3% to 2% of circulating shares.
institutional view: how do growth stocks go next?
Although various funds continue to attract growth stocks against the trend, from the perspective of comprehensive institutions, the market of growth stocks may still need to wait.
seller: growth stock or force in the second quarter
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the current adjustment range of growth stocks may be large, but the adjustment of investors' risk appetite under the background of the lack of short-term positive catalyst may take time. Until China's growth expectation is gradually stable and the overseas market responds to monetary tightening to a certain extent, the market style may gradually have the conditions to return to the growth style, It is preliminarily estimated that the time point may be around the beginning of the second quarter.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that when will the growth track usher in systematic repair? The current market style is in the process of transforming from growth to value and will last for at least one quarter; The growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in systematic repair after the three conditions are complete.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said it was suggested to balance the allocation of value and growth, focusing on big finance and hard technology benefiting from policies.
Among them, in terms of value, it is suggested to pay attention to financial real estate, especially securities companies. Looking back on history, there have been six times of excess returns in financial real estate since 2010. Among the previous markets, securities companies have increased the most, with an average increase of 72%.
In terms of growth, it is suggested to pay attention to hard technology, especially new energy and digital economy. At present, the steady growth policy is intensively introduced, and the steady growth policy is expected to directly drive the growth of new and old infrastructure investment.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that structurally, "dumbbell" configuration: on the one hand, the direction of China's policy relaxation is determined, and "mini version 2014" is on the way, focusing on "big finance" benefiting from "stable growth" and "broad credit" at the margin; On the other hand, the layout, excavation and adjustment are deep, the pressure of congestion is fully released, and the prosperity is still good.
buyer: the adjustment space of track stocks is small
In addition to the seller, the buyer's organization is not pessimistic about the prospect of growth stocks.
Zhou Yuwen, the star fund manager of China Europe Fund, said that after adjustment, the market is not pessimistic about the future. The main reasons are: first, the adjustment of the track target has basically been completed, and the bubble has been very small. Second, the past 2-3 years also belong to a structural bull market, and there are many stocks with investment value; Third, although the world is facing liquidity tightening, the previous policies of the Central Bank of China are more forward-looking, and there is room for loose monetary policy, which is relatively favorable.
Shi Bo, chief investment officer (equity) of China Southern Fund, believes that there is no problem with the investment logic of industries such as medicine, new energy and large consumption, and the overvalued values of some companies have been digested in the process of decline. Therefore, the adjustment process provides an opportunity to further select the layout. Of course, for fund investors, it is necessary to know that the fund products of growth stock investment and growth style must be highly volatile. In the process of investment of these products, it is very important to do their own risk evaluation well.
Of course, there are some cautious buyers. Xu Lirong, deputy general manager and investment director of Guohai Franklin fund, said that the profitability of many enterprises in the next 1-2 years is expected to be relatively good, the valuation is also relatively reasonable or even low, so they generally hold a positive view of this year's stock market. However, this year's index yield is expected to be reduced to a certain extent, because growth stocks performed well last year and the stock activity is also very high. The yield of various indexes may be narrowed this year.
