Core view
Review:
On January 3, "it's the turn of big finance" stressed that the market's expectation of steady growth is insufficient, and big finance is the winner and loser of 2022 investment. January 9 "big finance is the current β》 Global liquidity inflection point, after the market has been greatly adjusted, there is style switching.
In January 16th, "retreat or attack to big finance" overestimated the value of the bubble, big finance seemed defensive, but actually the best offense. January 23 "big finance is still calm" big finance deals with the "chaotic cloud crossing" overseas and waits for the "infinite scenery" to attack again. In February 6th, "big finance continues to cut", the US dollar debt upward high valuation "crowded the bubble", cuts to the big finance (the bank, the real estate chain). In the bottom area, we should not panic excessively, save more energy and breed an upward inflection point. During the window period of monetary easing, credit easing continued, "steady growth" is the main line and core contradiction at present. The contraction of the monetary policy and the inflection point of liquidity in developed economies have an impact on the high valuation sector. In terms of configuration, the big finance (bank, insurance, brokerage and real estate chain) recommended by us since 2022 is still the main line and can continue to be added. Consumption allocation focuses on the "four kings" represented by pigs, covid-19 oral medicine chain, tourism hotel catering and airport.
In the bottom area, we should not panic excessively, save more energy and breed an upward inflection point.
The rapid adjustment of the short-term market has a great impact on sentiment. Absolute beneficiaries, such as special accounts, private placement and self operation, passively reduce their positions based on safety cushion, contract provisions and other considerations, resulting in the phenomenon of "killing more than one". On the whole, the market's "falling" energy has been significantly attenuated. Considering the current era of mobile Internet, we media such as microblog, wechat group and big V have accelerated and amplified the group effect. In the process of rise or fall, the market will behave more extreme and faster than before.
Just as we emphasized in "retreat or attack, rely on big finance" on January 16 and "big finance is still calm" on January 23, investors need to maintain the strategic belief of "flying through the clouds is still calm" in order to meet the beautiful scene of "unlimited scenery on dangerous peaks". After nearly a month of rapid adjustment, it will take time for the market to fully restore confidence. In the short term, there are many cautious investors, their emotions are changeable, fluctuate greatly, and are greatly affected by the outside world. The market is breeding opportunities in the bottom area through "decline - contraction - rebound - bottom exploration - stabilization", accumulating long energy, consuming short power, and gradually breeding the upward inflection point of the market.
In the fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report, credit easing continued and the monetary easing window period continued. According to the fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report of the central bank, there are three uncertainties in the global economy (epidemic situation, inflation and monetary contraction in developed economies) by continuing the triple pressure setting of the economic work conference. Internally, the first quarter is still a good time window for wide credit and wide currency. For the outside world, we should strengthen risk response. In "big finance, continue to cut" on February 6, we stressed that the inflection point of overseas liquidity has been formed, and we need to pay attention to the impact of the contraction of the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Central Bank on asset prices. As the central bank emphasized in the monetary policy implementation report, "focus on me and deal with the balance between internal equilibrium and external equilibrium". In the follow-up, we should also pay attention to the short-term pressure faced by the RMB exchange rate in the contraction process of developed economies.
In January, the social finance and credit supermarket expected that the first step of "steady growth" of financial data was confirmed, waiting for the second confirmation of economic data. We began to move from the expected level to the data verification stage from the "turn to big finance" proposed on January 3. In the data verification stage, the first step is the confirmation of financial data, followed by economic data. The confirmation of financial data represents the "steady growth" signal and monetary easing signal released after the economic work conference in December 2021, which are gradually transmitted to credit easing. Looking ahead, from financial data to economic data is indeed the second stage of verifying the effect of "stable growth" and correcting investors' pessimistic expectations for the economy. From the perspective of social finance of financial data, the credit structure needs to be further improved, and the steady growth policy is expected to continue to be strengthened. From the perspective of structure, there were more social financing structure, short-term financing (bill financing + enterprise short-term loan) and government bond financing in January, mainly due to the steady growth demand of the government and the advance issuance of special bonds. Follow up attention will be paid to the improvement of medium and long-term loans, and then the transmission effect on the real economy.
